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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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125 FXUS63 KEAX 160505 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered severe storms will be possible late afternoon through evening. Strong gusty winds will be the primary threat, with large hail and isolated tornadoes secondary threats. - Storms will again be possible Friday afternoon and Friday night mainly south of Interstate 70. - Cooler temperatures expected this weekend and continuing into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 At mid afternoon and mid level trough was located over the eastern Dakotas with energy rotating around the base of the trough in northern Nebraska. This feature along with differential heating within an unstable uncapped atmosphere was leading to development of storms from central Nebraska into Iowa. As the mid level low moves eastward tonight a frontal boundary will move southward across northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. A very moist an unstable airmass was present over much of northern and western Missouri at 19Z with SBCAPE of 2000 to 4000 J/kg with 30 to 40 kts of effective shear. With the progression of the wave and a 45 to 50kts 500 mb jet couplet moving into northern Missouri this evening shear will increase to around 50kts by early evening. Expect isolated scattered storms developing after 22Z in northwest Missouri with the higher probability along the Iowa border this evening. A very moist atmosphere will also lead to good precipitation efficiency with rainfall rates up to 2+ inches per hour. Potential for severe weather continues across much of northern and northeastern Missouri. The scattered line of storms is expected to move into central Missouri by mid evening. Main concern will be damaging wind gusts and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out. The storms move into southern and southeast Missouri overnight with dry conditions expected through Friday morning. On Friday much of northwest Missouri will be in a northwest flow pattern aloft as the upper low moves into Wisconsin and a mid level high over the southwest. A couple of waves of energy pass through Kansas and into west central Missouri on Friday with an increasing chances of showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening. The Weekend is looking dry and cooler as a northwest flow continues across Missouri and eastern Kansas with any lobes of energy remaining east into Illinois. Highs over the weekend and into early next week will be in the 80s. Tuesday through Thursday next week continues to look dry with highs in the 70s and 80s. Much of the area will be under the influence of high pressure at the surface and northern flow aloft. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 There is a small chance for fog, mainly at STJ, early this morning as winds become light and variable. Outside of that potential, conditions look VFR with light westerly winds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...CB