125
FXUS63 KEAX 160505
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms will be possible late afternoon
  through evening. Strong gusty winds will be the primary
  threat, with large hail and isolated tornadoes secondary
  threats.

- Storms will again be possible Friday afternoon and Friday
  night mainly south of Interstate 70.

- Cooler temperatures expected this weekend and continuing into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024

At mid afternoon and mid level trough was located over the eastern
Dakotas with energy rotating around the base of the trough in
northern Nebraska. This feature along with differential heating
within an unstable uncapped atmosphere was leading to development of
storms from central Nebraska into Iowa. As the mid level low moves
eastward tonight a frontal boundary will move southward across
northeast Kansas and northern Missouri. A very moist an unstable
airmass was present over much of northern and western Missouri at
19Z with SBCAPE of 2000 to 4000 J/kg with 30 to 40 kts of effective
shear. With the progression of the wave and a 45 to 50kts 500 mb jet
couplet moving into northern Missouri this evening shear will
increase to around 50kts by early evening. Expect isolated scattered
storms developing after 22Z in northwest Missouri with the higher
probability along the Iowa border this evening. A very moist
atmosphere will also lead to good precipitation efficiency with
rainfall rates up to 2+ inches per hour. Potential for severe
weather continues across much of northern and northeastern Missouri.
The scattered line of storms is expected to move into central
Missouri by mid evening. Main concern will be damaging wind gusts
and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out. The storms move into
southern and southeast Missouri overnight with dry conditions
expected through Friday morning.

On Friday much of northwest Missouri will be in a northwest flow
pattern aloft as the upper low moves into Wisconsin and a mid level
high over the southwest. A couple of waves of energy pass through
Kansas and into west central Missouri on Friday with an increasing
chances of showers and storms Friday afternoon and evening.

The Weekend is looking dry and cooler as a northwest flow continues
across Missouri and eastern Kansas with any lobes of energy
remaining east into Illinois. Highs over the weekend and into early
next week will be in the 80s. Tuesday through Thursday next week
continues to look dry with highs in the 70s and 80s. Much of the
area will be under the influence of high pressure at the surface and
northern flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

There is a small chance for fog, mainly at STJ, early this morning
as winds become light and variable. Outside of that potential,
conditions look VFR with light westerly winds.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...CB