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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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495 FXUS63 KEAX 170542 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across east central Kansas and west central Missouri late this afternoon and evening. Severe weather is not expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 This afternoon a mid-level shortwave is moving across central Kansas. This shortwave will continue to progress ESE through the late afternoon and evening. The bulk of showers and thunderstorm activity associated with this shortwave is expected to move into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. These storms may just clip the southwestern portion of the CWA however severe weather is not expected. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 80s north to the low to mid 90s south. Tonight, surface high pressure will begin to build into the area from the northern Plains with lows falling into the mid to upper 60s. The surface ridge axis will build directly over the area on Saturday keeping conditions dry with seasonable highs in the lower 80s north to the near 90 south. The surface ridge will remain in control Saturday night into Sunday with lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the 80s. Sunday through the middle of next week, the pattern will be persistent with a upper level ridge of high pressure anchored over the southern Plains and southern High Plains. This will leave the local area under northwest flow aloft on the leeward side of the ridge. A couple shortwaves rounding the ridge Sunday night, Monday night and again on Tuesday night will have the slight chance (15-20%) to bring thunderstorms to portions of eastern Kansas however, the better chances for storms should remain west of the forecast area. Temperatures Monday through Thursday are expected to be a couple degrees below normal with highs generally in the low to mid 80s. Late next week, models favor the upper level ridge over the southern Plains building back into the local area with height rises eliciting a warming trend as temperatures are expected to return to near normal Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Shallow river valley fog at KSTJ should burn off shortly after sunrise this morning with light northwest winds prevailing. A few fair weather cumulus are possible east of highway 65 this afternoon, dissipating towards sunset. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...BT