495
FXUS63 KEAX 170542
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1242 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible across east
  central Kansas and west central Missouri late this afternoon
  and evening. Severe weather is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

This afternoon a mid-level shortwave is moving across central
Kansas. This shortwave will continue to progress ESE through the
late afternoon and evening. The bulk of showers and thunderstorm
activity associated with this shortwave is expected to move into
southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri. These storms may just
clip the southwestern portion of the CWA however severe weather is
not expected. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 80s
north to the low to mid 90s south. Tonight, surface high pressure
will begin to build into the area from the northern Plains with
lows falling into the mid to upper 60s. The surface ridge axis will
build directly over the area on Saturday keeping conditions dry with
seasonable highs in the lower 80s north to the near 90 south. The
surface ridge will remain in control Saturday night into Sunday with
lows in the low to mid 60s and highs in the 80s.

Sunday through the middle of next week, the pattern will be
persistent with a upper level ridge of high pressure anchored
over the southern Plains and southern High Plains. This will leave
the local area under northwest flow aloft on the leeward side of the
ridge. A couple shortwaves rounding the ridge Sunday night,
Monday night and again on Tuesday night will have the slight chance
(15-20%) to bring thunderstorms to portions of eastern Kansas
however, the better chances for storms should remain west of the
forecast area. Temperatures Monday through Thursday are expected to
be a couple degrees below normal with highs generally in the low to
mid 80s. Late next week, models favor the upper level ridge over the
southern Plains building back into the local area with height rises
eliciting a warming trend as temperatures are expected to return to
near normal Friday with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024

Shallow river valley fog at KSTJ should burn off shortly after
sunrise this morning with light northwest winds prevailing. A
few fair weather cumulus are possible east of highway 65 this
afternoon, dissipating towards sunset.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...BT