307
FXUS63 KEAX 150905
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
405 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously hot and humid conditions are expected this
  afternoon, with maximum heat indices ranging from 105 to as
  high as 115 degrees.

- Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late this evening
  into Tuesday morning. A few storms could be strong to severe.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible again Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning.

- Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected to arrive
  Wednesday and continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

After three consecutive nights/early mornings of convection,
finally a tranquil early morning across the region thanks to
a weaker low level jet and a strong cap in place. Warm and
humid conditions continue, with 3 AM temperatures ranging from
the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations and heat indices
still flirting with 90 degrees. The stout anticyclone that has
been centered over the Four Corners region for the past couple
of days gets pushed slightly southward, with the ridge
flattening out and flow becoming more zonal due to a low
amplitude mid level wave pivoting out of Canada into the Upper
Midwest. A pseudo stationary boundary currently across central
Iowa will slowly sink southward today with the push of the
northern CONUS wave. Between the influence of the anticyclone to
our west and possibly some compressional warming and moisture
pooling out ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures
are forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 100 degrees with
max heat indices ranging from 105 to 115 degrees this afternoon.
These heat indices will be capable of yielding heat related
illnesses in short order, so please exercise caution if you must
be outside during the afternoon and evening hours today.

With the mid level wave and associated cold front, robust
convection is likely to initiate over central Iowa by mid
afternoon, with this growing upscale into an MCS as it moves to
the southeast through late afternoon into the evening hours.
CAMs have differing solutions in the evolution of this MCS, with
the HRRR keeping it well northeast of our region, while the NAM
Nest suggests a decaying MCS potentially entering into northern
MO by late evening. The 06z HRRR suggests convection developing
over NW Missouri by around 3-4 AM Tuesday morning along the
stalled cold front, with another area of convection developing
in the vicinity of the KC metro closer to 6-7 AM Tuesday
morning. Confidence is not particularly high at this time in
regards to how this all may play out, but any storms that do
manage to initiate will pose the threat for damaging wind gusts
and perhaps some marginally severe hail.

As we head into Tuesday, the northern wave/trough pivots out of
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region, and deepens
further into our region. This should allow the front to slowly
make its way southward through the daytime hours on Tuesday.
High temperatures for Tuesday afternoon remain a bit uncertain
due to the uncertainty of the exact front location as well as
impacts from any convection Tuesday morning into Tuesday
afternoon and any associated outflow boundaries. As of now, the
forecast reflects cooler high temps (mid to upper 80s) across
northern Missouri where the front should move through by early
afternoon, with warmer temperatures and heat indices for
locations along and south of Interstate 70 through Tuesday
afternoon. It is possible that our far southern counties (Linn
KS, Bates, Henry) could flirt with heat advisory criteria again
on Tuesday.

The front is likely to stall Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning somewhere in the vicinity of Interstate 70 to the
northern Ozarks. This will increase shower and thunderstorm
chances for this time period (especially from 1 AM to 7 AM
Wednesday and for areas south of Interstate 70), and with a
stalled boundary, strong low level jet, the chance for training
storms, and PWAT values on the order of 1.8" to 2.1", this will
yield a conditional threat for locally moderate to heavy
rainfall. However, ensemble/probabilistic guidance has trended
downward on the heavy rain risk, and the slight risk for
excessive rain from WPC has been downgraded to only a marginal
risk. In additional to the heavy rainfall threat, there will be
a marginal risk for some strong to severe storms thanks to more
than sufficient instability and just enough deep layer shear to
produce some organized updrafts.

Shower and thunderstorms should end from north to south
Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon as the cold front
finally pushes well south of our area. Cooler and drier air will
come behind the front, with troughing remaining in place aloft
and a 1024 mb surface high building into the Upper Midwest. This
will bring a welcomed reprieve from the heat, with highs in the
lower to mid 80s forecast for Wednesday. However, slightly
elevated moisture may hang around through Wednesday. By Thursday
and into Friday, highs in the lower 80s will be coupled with
mid to upper 50s dewpoints, making it feel quite comfortable.
For this weekend, highs remain in the low to mid 80s with
dewpoints coming up a few degrees.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. Winds will gust
to around 20 kts with afternoon mixing at 18z, before falling off
around 0z. Winds will remain southerly between 5-10 kts overnight,
and speed up to 10-15 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...Pesel