539
FXUS63 KEAX 180639
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
139 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant conditions with below normal temperatures and dry
conditions through Friday.

- Chance of scattered showers and storms returns to the region on
Saturday and remains across the region till the middle of next week.
Severe weather threat looks low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Canadian high pressure building into the Upper Midwest will provide
a couple of chamber of commerce days across the region. This system
will be incredibly slow moving with very limited mid and upper level
flow. Fair weather cumulus is expected to develop each afternoon,
with temperatures ~5-7 degrees below normal. Surface dew points will
remain near 60F, creating very comfortable conditions and leading to
low temperatures also 5-10 degrees below normal.

Shortwave in eastern Washington this morning is expected to ride
along the northern periphery of the upper level ridge across the
west today spilling into the western Northern Plains on Friday. This
will bring with it the chance of rain, but with the gulf shut off,
there will be limited amounts of moisture especially as the
disturbances tries to build south and east into the influence of the
lingering surface ridge. Have continued to focus highest pops in far
western areas of the domain across eastern Kansas into far western
Missouri, with better chances farther west with less influence of
surface ridge to the east. With very weak flow aloft through the
weekend, system develops into a cutoff low across the center of the
country, keeping the chance of showers and thunderstorms around into
the middle of next week generally favoring the late afternoon and
evening hours.  Both instability and shear appears to be limited, so
am not anticipating severe weather at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions through the period with light northeast winds.
Isolated-scattered cumulus from 15Z Thursday-00Z Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT