631
FXUS63 KEAX 152334
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
634 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late this evening
  into Tuesday morning. A few storms could be strong to severe.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible again Tuesday night into
  Wednesday morning.

- Much cooler and less humid conditions are expected to arrive
  Wednesday and continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a hot humid airmass is in
place across the Central Plains this afternoon, stuck between a dome
of high pressure over the Four Corners Region juxtaposed against a
trough extending south through eastern Canada into the Great Lakes.
Southerly surface winds with southwesterly winds aloft have left
Kansas and Missouri dominated by miserably hot and humid
conditions, with afternoon heat indicies between 105 and 110 in most
areas today. And, of course with hot and humid conditions comes high
CAPE values, as MUCAPE values of 6000+ J/KG are noted across
northern Missouri off SPC meso-analysis page this afternoon.

The heat and humidity will continue into tonight with lows ranging
through the 70s. However, a shortwave rotating south through the
northern Plains, from the eastern Canadian trough, is pushing a
modest cold front south across Nebraska and Iowa which will bring
slightly cooler temperatures for Tuesday, but also the chance for
thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday morning. Currently, best
focus for convection continues to be across Iowa as storms initiate
north of a strong capping inversion noted on both the TOP & OAX 12Z
upper air soundings. As a result CAM models have struggled to
develop convection across eastern Kansas and Missouri. Best
potential for storms will be across north central and northeast
Missouri this evening as outflow from the Iowa storms heads south,
however as the storms shift south they will be moving away from the
organizing shear. As a result damaging winds are the main concern for
severe weather, though with precipitable water values around 1.7
inches heavy flooding rains could be an issue if any storms train
over the same location.

For Tuesday...storms may be ongoing in the morning, but that will be
dependent on the nocturnal jet and how it interacts with the
boundaries left by the storms in Iowa tonight. If convection bubbles
up we expect it maybe near Highway 36 with storms moving east
southeast, though the lack of shear early in the morning looks to
limit the severe potential to more of the same as before, which was
gusty winds and flooding from training storms. Otherwise for
Tuesday, expect temperatures to start to trend down as the cooler
air behind the modest cold front starts to filter south. Tuesday
will still be a bit hot and humid, but heat indicies will stay below
105 as afternoon absolute temperatures top out in the upper 80s to
around 90 degrees.

Looking forward to Wednesday and the periods beyond, day time highs
and overnight lows will be much nicer as the cooler north wind
prevails while the eastern Canadian trough parks itself to our east
and keeps the cool air moving south. However, of note for Wednesday,
we will be looking for the modest frontal boundary to stall out
across central Missouri, which will produce another round of
thunderstorms along and south of Highway 50 late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Given the lack of overall change in the airmass
between now and Wednesday, we once again expect a threat of damaging
winds and flooding rains with any of the storms Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

Beyond Wednesday, expect pleasant conditions through the end of the
work week and through the weekend with a chance for storms returning
this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Gusts will persist at all terminals until around 1z, where they
will fall off with sunset. Expecting winds to remain southerly
until the passage of a cold frontal boundary tonight, which will
cause an abrupt wind shift towards the northwest/north from
north to south. Primary forecast concerns for this period are
the timing of the cold frontal passage and chances of
precipitation at all terminal sites. Currently watching active
convection over IA, which could influence showers/thunderstorms
at all terminals by early morning tomorrow. With this much
uncertainty, we have elected to keep mentions of prevailing
weather out of TAFs until confidence increases in storm timing,
intensity, and coverage.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>008-
     011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...SPG/Pesel