783
FXUS63 KEAX 162312
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Much more enjoyable weather conditions within the forecast.

* Cooler and drier conditions remainder of the work week.

* Some chances for showers/storms return for the weekend, but cooler
  temperatures to remain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A couple areas of robust/severe convection this morning produced
swaths of high winds, power outages, and other damage, primarily
west of and into the western KC metro and roughly along Highway 24.
Outflows from these storms pushed southward, and combined with
lingering cloud cover, have done well to suppress originally
forecast high temperatures. Have bumped them down a couple of
degrees, but did not get too aggressive with thinning mid-high level
cloud cover and only needing a couple hours of sunshine to quickly
boost temperatures back up this time of the year. Regardless, doubt
there are many complaints given temperature conditions the previous
couple of days.

Another effect of the morning convection and outflows has been to
help suppress the northward rebound of the warm front. In
conjunction with the area of high pressure dropping through the
northern and central plains, hi-res guidance has latched onto and
been consistent in pushing nocturnal convection south of the CWA and
keeping it primarily in the SGF/LSX/PAH areas. With that in mind,
have trimmed PoPs overnight, but did not go completely dry just yet.

Aforementioned area of high pressure and large scale NW flow aloft
then dominates the region for the remainder of the work week. Bank
on quiet and much more pleasant sensible weather conditions as highs
fall back into the upper 70s to 80s and dew points falling into the
50s/60s.

Amongst the flagship synoptic models, agreement/consistency remains
unusually strong into/through the weekend. Expect a shortwave trough
to drop down through the larger NW flow, which will reintroduce PoPs
to the forecast by Saturday into Sunday. Some uncertainty into
evolution of the shortwave trough late weekend into early next week.
Building high pressure over Atlantic and SE US looks to stall the
shortwave, potentially keeping it in the area into mid-week before
being absorbed into the Great Lakes/Hudson Bay longwave trough. Main
consequence here would be lingering PoPs and cool conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR conditions very likely through the forecast. There may be
some passing MVFR ceilings over the next few hours with an area
of clouds moving through eastern KS and mainly western MO.
Diurnal CU expected tomorrow afternoon with light winds
throughout the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...CDB/CMS