738
FXUS63 KEAX 080512
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1212 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms are possible lat this afternoon into this
  evening with the greatest focus along and south of a line from
  KC to Kirksville. Storms are generally expected to remain
  below severe limits, but could see locally heavy rainfall with
  training.

- Additional storms are possible Monday night into Tuesday
  across central Missouri as remnants of tropical storm Beryl
  move north.

- Warming trend with highs back in the 90s and potential heat
  index values in excess of 100F late this week into next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Abbreviated discussion today due to ongoing convection.

Clusters of thunderstorms developing in very weakly capped
environment mainly along and south of a line from Kansas City to
Kirksville.  This area is located in the right rear quadrant of a
jet streak lifting off to the northeast.  A second jet streak is
expected to develop across central into southern Missouri this
evening, with upper level divergence mainly focused across central
Missouri.  The net result will be a south and eastward trend to the
convection with time.  Wind shear generally remains weak (> 30 knots
effective shear) so storms by and large should remain sub-severe.
Mean storm motion is around 25 knots, but training of storms within
environment of 1.5+" precipitable water could lead to locally heavy
rainfall.

Expect a bulk of the region to remain dry on Monday as weak high
pressure noses into the region from the northern plains.  The
remnants of Beryl are trending farther west with each model run.
Given this trend, have increase pops Monday night across central
Missouri.  With the tropical connection, will need to keep an eye on
the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Developing upper level ridge across the west expands eastward
throughout the week leading to a warming trend.  With that said,
there are a series of ridge riders that are expected to move through
in the mean flow, potentially serving as focusing mechanisms for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Some spotty showers have begun to develop around TAF sites, and
even a couple of thunderstorms near STJ, but these are not
expected to be the prevailing weather condition (and may not
even affect the terminals directly). As a result, have included
VCSH or VCTS mention at the KC and St. Joseph terminals through
08z. However, any impacts will be short-lived, with VFR
conditions prevailing the rest of tonight and through the day
Monday. Winds will shift to the west/northwest by the morning
with a boundary coming in from the northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CMS/SPG