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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
341 FNUS22 KWNS 131827 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z An isolated dry thunderstorm risk area has been introduced for portions of far northern CA into OR. Latest guidance has come into better agreement regarding thunderstorm potential associated with an approaching trough. Thunderstorm chances should increase late afternoon into the overnight/early-morning hours across this region. Forecast soundings have also trended towards drier mid-level conditions with PWAT values between 0.6 to 0.8 inches. Given antecedent dry fuels, dry thunderstorms will be a fire concern. ..Moore.. 08/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough is expected to approach the northwestern California coast on D2/Wednesday, with much of the Western U.S. characterized by weak, zonal mid-level flow. This trough could bring some forcing for thunderstorm development overnight into Thursday morning across northern California into southern Oregon, but PWAT values > 0.8 and Most Unstable parcel originating at temps colder than 0C leave some uncertainty on where dry thunder highlights might be needed. Surface winds are forecast to remain well below Critical highlight criteria across the western U.S., though some locally Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona, and southern Utah. These conditions will be confined to local topography, and fuels across much of the southern Great Basin are not receptive enough to wildfire spread (due to recent wetting rainfall) to warrant highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$