857
FNUS22 KWNS 111951
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...Sierras...
Confidence has increased in sufficient moisture reaching the Sierras
to support the inclusion of a Dry Thunder highlight for Friday. Any
storms that develop over the Sierras could produce lightning over
receptive fuels, and forecast profiles show deeply-mixed, inverted-V
boundary layer profiles supportive of gusty thunderstorm outflow.

...Southwest Utah into Northern Arizona...
A Dry Thunder highlight has been added to portions of Southern Utah
and Northwestern Arizona. Dry thunder occurrence appears likely
along the northern fringes of the monsoonal moisture, and fuels are
currently receptive with minimal precipitation occurring over the
last week. Given hot/dry boundary layer conditions, gusty
thunderstorm outflow is likely with storms that develop.

...Northwest...
No significant changes were made to the Elevated highlights over
portions of the Northwest. See previous discussion for more detail.

..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/11/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024/

...Synopsis...
Hot and dry conditions will persist across much of the West on
Friday, due to a persistent mid/upper-level ridge covering much of
the Great Basin into the Southwest and southern Rockies. A belt of
modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow along the western/northern
periphery of the ridge will continue to support potential for
elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions across parts of
the interior Northwest.

...Parts of south-central/southeast OR into northeast CA/northwest
NV...
Guidance continues to vary somewhat regarding the strength of
low-level flow across parts of OR into northeast CA/northwest NV on
Friday. In general, west-southwesterly winds are expected to
increase to 15-20 mph (with higher gusts) during the afternoon, as
RH values drop near/below 10 percent, resulting in elevated to
locally critical fire-weather conditions.

...Snake River Plain vicinity...
A similar regime to D1/Thursday is expected on Friday across the
Snake River Plain and vicinity, with elevated to locally critical
fire-weather conditions likely during the afternoon and early
evening. Relatively hot and dry conditions are again expected, with
RH potentially dropping to near or below 10 percent during the
afternoon. Guidance generally suggests that flow will be similar or
perhaps slightly weaker compared to D1/Thursday, but still
sufficiently strong to support sustained winds of 15-20 mph with
higher gusts.

...Parts of the Sierra Nevada...
Most guidance suggests a modest increase in moisture across parts of
the Sierra Nevada on Friday, along the western periphery of the
mid/upper-level ridge. Confidence is currently low regarding whether
instability will become sufficient to support thunderstorm
development, but some dry-thunderstorm potential cannot be ruled out
during the afternoon/evening, and this area will continue to be
monitored for potential inclusion of an isolated dry-thunderstorm
area.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$