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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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411 ACUS01 KWNS 200525 SWODY1 SPC AC 200524 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Central to southern High Plains... A moderate mid-level northwesterly flow regime will persist between an anticyclone over the Great Basin and a low-amplitude trough from the Great Lakes towards the Ozarks. The latter part of this minor trough may be augmented by a southeast-moving MCV from remnants of weakening convection currently over western KS. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon over the central to southern Rockies, spreading across the adjacent High Plains. An additional corridor of scattered thunderstorms may be focused over northwest TX into southwest OK, where differential boundary-layer heating should be more pronounced to the south-southwest of early-day convection/cloud cover. After fairly extensive convection on Friday evening, instability will be comparatively weaker this afternoon. Still, with a moderate combination of buoyancy, characterized by MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear, a few clusters and transient supercells may develop across the region. Cooler-than-normal surface temperatures north of northwest TX suggest the wind threat may be more strong than severe, a signal supported by 00Z HREF guidance. Isolated severe hail may be the primary hazard over the central High Plains. ...Southeast... Between a low-amplitude mid-level trough from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks and the subtropical ridge in the western Atlantic, a belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly 700-500 mb winds should exist across parts of the Southeast from eastern GA to southern VA. Scattered thunderstorms appear most probable during the afternoon in parts of AL/GA/north FL, and separately in the lee of the southern Appalachians to the VA/NC border. Destabilization within the enhanced flow regime should be more pronounced between these regimes over the Carolina Piedmont and coastal plain. Upstream convection may consolidate into loosely organized multicell clusters capable of producing sporadic strong gusts and localized tree damage. ..Grams/Lyons.. 07/20/2024 $$