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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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175 ACUS01 KWNS 201615 SWODY1 SPC AC 201613 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Southeast... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving slowly east across KY/TN/AL towards the southern Appalachians. A mid-level anticyclone located over the Gulf Stream to the east of the Southeast U.S. will move little during the period. Late morning surface analysis indicates a very moist airmass resides over the coastal plains of GA/Carolinas with mid 70s deg F dewpoints. Ample heating via mostly sunny skies (per visible satellite data) east of a line from Macon, GA to Columbia, SC, and to the Research Triangle, will result in a moderately unstable boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show PW around 2 to 2.25 inches and moderate effective shear (20-30 kt). Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters as convective temperatures are breached by early afternoon. Given the buoyant/high PW environment, water-loaded downdrafts will accompany the stronger thunderstorm cores. Isolated wet microbursts capable of 45-60 mph gusts will potentially result in isolated to widely scattered wind damage this afternoon and early evening. ...Central and southern High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and hail are possible with the stronger storms before this activity diminishes by mid to late evening. ..Smith/Jirak.. 07/20/2024 $$