000
ACUS01 KWNS 151633
SWODY1
SPC AC 151631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NORTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across
portions of the Midwest, central High Plains, lower Great Lakes, and
Arizona.  The greatest potential for severe gusts is over eastern
Iowa into Illinois and Indiana.

...Midwest...
A broad upper trough is digging southeastward across northwest
Ontario and MN today, with strengthening mid level flow across much
of the Midwest.  Rapid thunderstorm development is expected to occur
by mid afternoon across portions of WI/northeast IA, with storms
tracking rapidly east-southeastward into northern IL and eventually
parts of IN/Lower MI.  12z CAM guidance remains in general agreement
that a large bowing complex is likely, although details of the
corridor of greatest risk vary between solutions.  Regardless, an
active severe event is expected for this region, with the potential
for isolated instances of significant damaging winds.

...NY/PA...
Thunderstorms have begun to intensify over eastern Lake Erie, ahead
of a strong upper trough and remnant MCVs.  These storms are
expected to increase in coverage and spread eastward through the
day, possibly as far east as southeast NY and northern NJ by
evening.  Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns with these
storms.

...Central High Plains...
Scattered high-based thunderstorm development is expected this
afternoon from western NE southward into parts of northeast CO and
western KS.  The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer,
sufficient CAPE, and 30+ knots of westerly mid level flow will pose
a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells.

..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/15/2024

$$