642
ACUS01 KWNS 170057
SWODY1
SPC AC 170055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY...FROM THE OZARKS TO WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue into the nighttime hours across
portions of the central and southern Plains, and from the Ozarks
into western Kentucky. A severe risk will also continue for a few
more hours this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this
activity, though isolated large hail is possible across the central
Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a damaging wind
risk the next few hours. The main threat will be associated with a
bowing segment across MA/NH, and other cluster further south near
the I-95 corridor from NYC to Washington D.C., where Severe
Thunderstorm Watches 548 and 549 remain in effect. For more
information, see MCDs 1660 and 1662.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Thunderstorms over southeast CO have consolidated into a
forward-propagating MCS this evening. This activity should continue
east/southeast the next several hours, posing a risk for
severe/damaging gusts. A supercell over central NE has shown some
tendency toward upscale development over the past hour. Along with
this cell, other isolated cells will continue to pose a risk for
severe/damaging gusts and hail over the next few hours. Severe
Thunderstorm Watches 550 and 551 remain in effect for several more
hours to cover these hazards. For short term info across the
southwest KS vicinity, see MCD 1663.

...Ozarks into KY...

The Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been reoriented to be better
aligned with an MCV currently located over southwest MO, and with
ongoing convection across northern AR. Thunderstorms will continue
to develop ahead of the MCV and within a modest warm advection
regime. This activity may occasionally produce severe/damaging gusts
into tonight, especially if a cold pool can develop. For more short
term details, see MCD 1661.

...AZ...

Isolated thunderstorms will continue to pose a risk for severe gusts
for several more hours tonight across southeast AZ amid modest
instability and very steep low-level lapse rates. Convective
coverage has remained fairly low so far this evening, however, if
coverage can increase, a small forward propagating cluster could
develop southwest toward the international border. This scenario is
uncertain given rather weak midlevel flow.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2024

$$