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Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
480 FNUS21 KWNS 161655 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...Update... In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional details pertaining to NV and CA. ..Barnes.. 08/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with 40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected across portions of California and Nevada. ...Dry/Windy... South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness, highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time. Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions. ...Dry Thunderstorms... The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$