480
FNUS21 KWNS 161655
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

...Update...
In addition to the potential for isolated dry thunderstorms across
WY and MT, isolated dry lightning strikes may also occur over
central and southern NM this afternoon and evening. The latest
forecast soundings suggest a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in
place under a shallow plume of mid-level moisture within an
upper-level ridge, and orographic ascent should result in at least
isolated moist convection developing with daytime heating. Although
widespread fuels are not overly receptive across this region due to
recent rainfall, pockets of seasonably high ERCs persist. For the
rest of the CONUS, the previous forecast remains accurate and
unchanged. Please see the past discussion below for additional
details pertaining to NV and CA.

..Barnes.. 08/16/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024/

...Synopsis...
Broad, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will overspread portions of
California and northern Nevada today, with a modest jet streak (with
40-45 kt winds) progressing east across the northern Great Basin. As
this weak jet moves east, elevated fire-weather conditions are
expected across portions of California and Nevada.

...Dry/Windy...
South of this mid-level jet and north of a mid-level ridge centered
over portions of Arizona and New Mexico, deep boundary layer mixing
will result in dry and windy conditions across portions of
California, Nevada, and Utah. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and
relative humidity values of 5-10% are expected, though will only
overlap narrowly with a belt of receptive fuels across portions of
Nevada and California. With winds and relative humidity being
supportive of wildfire spread, but only modest fuel receptiveness,
highlights have been limited to elevated conditions at this time.
Recent wetting rainfall in eastern Nevada and western Utah will
limit wildfire potential in these areas, though additional drying of
fuels is expected given the dry/windy conditions.

...Dry Thunderstorms...
The potential for some dry thunderstorms exists across portions of
northern Wyoming and southeastern Montana. However, recent wetting
rainfall and fuels guidance suggests there is minimal risk for
wildfire spread and lightning-based ignitions at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$