832
FXUS63 KDVN 101730
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures expected through at least early next
  week, before moderating closer to normal by the end of next
  week.

- Rain chances return late Sunday night/Monday with periodic
  chances continuing next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Clear, calm and collected...and also cool early this morning,
as a large expanse of surface high pressure in the Plains
continues to gradually build into the region. The dry air and
radiational cooling setup has allowed temperatures to drop
into the upper 40s to mid 50s at 2 AM, and will likely lead to
some record lows being threatened. Please refer to the Climate
section below.

Through Sunday expect more of the same spectacular weather with
pleasant and below normal highs, and another cool night tonight
as surface high pressure builds into the region. For today,
WNW winds will turn gusty again with diurnal mixing although
likely not quite as gusty as yesterday but still some gusts
15-20 kts at times. Skies look to be partly to mostly sunny with
diurnal cumulus by late morning/afternoon and also some high
level clouds. Thermally not too much change from yesterday,
but likely to see highs a few degrees warmer through airmass
modification and more solar insolation, with readings topping out
mainly in the lower to middle 70s. Lows tonight should once
again plummet down into the 50s with the light/near calm wind
and dry air beneath a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Can`t
rule out some upper 40s though in the drainage areas should skies
stay clear for a long period. Highs Sunday will moderate into the
mid 70s to around 80 with a mix of clouds and sunshine, but
little in the way of wind and low humidity will make for a real
beauty of a day to close out the weekend!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

The pattern aloft begins to undergo change late in the weekend, as
a deep upper low in Ontario/Quebec begins to finally shift
eastward. This occurs as an upstream kicker shortwave trough
translates southeastward from the Northern Rockies reaching the
Upper Midwest by Monday morning. There is a signal in the model
guidance for one or more convective systems forming to our
west Sunday night, one to our southwest across portions
of the Central Plains along/north of an evolving warm front and
surface low likely tracking ESE. The other may evolve further
north into parts of South Dakota, SW Minnesota, W Iowa within
elevated theta-e advection ahead of the shortwave. The
convection should be decaying/weakening as it moves into our
area late Sunday night and Monday morning, but at least some
showers and perhaps a few embedded storms are expected with the
highest chances (40-60%) across the southwest 1/3-1/2 of the
county warning area. Between the precipitation and cloud cover
highs should be limited into the 70s on Monday across the region.

The pattern looks to be somewhat active through the rest of next
week and into next weekend, as upper level ridging builds into the
Plains. Monsoonal sub-tropical moisture will flow on the western
periphery of the ridging initially, but precipitation chances
will return/ramp up midweek as some of this moisture traverses
the northern periphery of the ridging along with several embedded
perturbations /ridge riders/ traversing north of a surface
boundary to our south. PWATs increasing over 1.5+ inches by
Wednesday into Thursday coupled with favorable jet dynamics
supporting/enhancing large-scale lift suggests this period
mentioned will be one to watch for heavy rain potential, and
while the pattern doesn`t scream severe weather it has at least
some potential which will need to be monitored.

By the end of next week into the start of next weekend there is
a lot of uncertainty in the pattern, but seeing some signal
in some of the ensemble and deterministic guidance of a trough
moving through the region. This could be progressive and bring
a 24+ hour period of PoPs late in the period, or as some guidance
hints it could develop into a closed low which could impact
the forecast in prolonging PoPs and lowering high temperatures,
so stay tuned as the details become better defined in the days
ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal mixing
by through afternoon will lead to high based cumulus and and
WNW winds gusting 12-20 kt. Winds become light northwest tonight.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Record Lows August 10

Burlington....51 in 1917
Moline........50 in 1884
Cedar Rapids..47 in 1924
Dubuque.......48 in 1882

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Ervin
CLIMATE...McClure