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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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832 FXUS63 KDVN 101730 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures expected through at least early next week, before moderating closer to normal by the end of next week. - Rain chances return late Sunday night/Monday with periodic chances continuing next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Clear, calm and collected...and also cool early this morning, as a large expanse of surface high pressure in the Plains continues to gradually build into the region. The dry air and radiational cooling setup has allowed temperatures to drop into the upper 40s to mid 50s at 2 AM, and will likely lead to some record lows being threatened. Please refer to the Climate section below. Through Sunday expect more of the same spectacular weather with pleasant and below normal highs, and another cool night tonight as surface high pressure builds into the region. For today, WNW winds will turn gusty again with diurnal mixing although likely not quite as gusty as yesterday but still some gusts 15-20 kts at times. Skies look to be partly to mostly sunny with diurnal cumulus by late morning/afternoon and also some high level clouds. Thermally not too much change from yesterday, but likely to see highs a few degrees warmer through airmass modification and more solar insolation, with readings topping out mainly in the lower to middle 70s. Lows tonight should once again plummet down into the 50s with the light/near calm wind and dry air beneath a partly cloudy to mostly clear sky. Can`t rule out some upper 40s though in the drainage areas should skies stay clear for a long period. Highs Sunday will moderate into the mid 70s to around 80 with a mix of clouds and sunshine, but little in the way of wind and low humidity will make for a real beauty of a day to close out the weekend! && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The pattern aloft begins to undergo change late in the weekend, as a deep upper low in Ontario/Quebec begins to finally shift eastward. This occurs as an upstream kicker shortwave trough translates southeastward from the Northern Rockies reaching the Upper Midwest by Monday morning. There is a signal in the model guidance for one or more convective systems forming to our west Sunday night, one to our southwest across portions of the Central Plains along/north of an evolving warm front and surface low likely tracking ESE. The other may evolve further north into parts of South Dakota, SW Minnesota, W Iowa within elevated theta-e advection ahead of the shortwave. The convection should be decaying/weakening as it moves into our area late Sunday night and Monday morning, but at least some showers and perhaps a few embedded storms are expected with the highest chances (40-60%) across the southwest 1/3-1/2 of the county warning area. Between the precipitation and cloud cover highs should be limited into the 70s on Monday across the region. The pattern looks to be somewhat active through the rest of next week and into next weekend, as upper level ridging builds into the Plains. Monsoonal sub-tropical moisture will flow on the western periphery of the ridging initially, but precipitation chances will return/ramp up midweek as some of this moisture traverses the northern periphery of the ridging along with several embedded perturbations /ridge riders/ traversing north of a surface boundary to our south. PWATs increasing over 1.5+ inches by Wednesday into Thursday coupled with favorable jet dynamics supporting/enhancing large-scale lift suggests this period mentioned will be one to watch for heavy rain potential, and while the pattern doesn`t scream severe weather it has at least some potential which will need to be monitored. By the end of next week into the start of next weekend there is a lot of uncertainty in the pattern, but seeing some signal in some of the ensemble and deterministic guidance of a trough moving through the region. This could be progressive and bring a 24+ hour period of PoPs late in the period, or as some guidance hints it could develop into a closed low which could impact the forecast in prolonging PoPs and lowering high temperatures, so stay tuned as the details become better defined in the days ahead. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period. Diurnal mixing by through afternoon will lead to high based cumulus and and WNW winds gusting 12-20 kt. Winds become light northwest tonight. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Record Lows August 10 Burlington....51 in 1917 Moline........50 in 1884 Cedar Rapids..47 in 1924 Dubuque.......48 in 1882 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Ervin CLIMATE...McClure