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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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442 FXUS63 KDVN 110019 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 719 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal temperatures expected through at least early next week, before moderating closer to normal by the end of next week. - Rain chances return late Sunday night/Monday with periodic chances continuing next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Picture perfect sensible weather is in place today, and we hope you`re reading this AFD from a mobile device outside, because it`s outstanding out there! Afternoon temperatures have reached the lower 70s with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s, while the sky has a thin mix of cumulus and blue sky. Again, it`s picture perfect! The northwest winds will decrease this evening, to under 10 mph by mid evening, resulting in another cool and nearly calm night. A subtle ridge of surface high pressure will move over the area by sunrise, which could allow a short period of calm winds toward morning, with lows in the lower to mid 50s. After this high moves south tomorrow morning, west winds will bring in slightly warmer air, though dewpoints should remain in the 50s. Thus, Sunday will be a touch warmer, in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but should once again feel exceptionally pleasant. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 The pattern aloft begins to undergo change late in the weekend, as a deep upper low in Ontario/Quebec begins to finally shift eastward. This occurs as an upstream kicker shortwave trough translates southeastward from the Northern Rockies reaching the Upper Midwest by Monday morning. There is a signal in the model guidance for one or more convective systems forming to our west Sunday night, one to our southwest across portions of the Central Plains along/north of an evolving warm front and surface low likely tracking ESE. The other may evolve further north into parts of South Dakota, SW Minnesota, W Iowa within elevated theta-e advection ahead of the shortwave. The convection should be decaying/weakening as it moves into our area late Sunday night and Monday morning, but at least some showers and perhaps a few embedded storms are expected with the highest chances (40-60%) across the southwest 1/3-1/2 of the county warning area. Between the precipitation and cloud cover highs should be limited into the 70s on Monday across the region. The pattern looks to be somewhat active through the rest of next week and into next weekend, as upper level ridging builds into the Plains. Monsoonal sub-tropical moisture will flow on the western periphery of the ridging initially, but precipitation chances will return/ramp up midweek as some of this moisture traverses the northern periphery of the ridging along with several embedded perturbations /ridge riders/ traversing north of a surface boundary to our south. PWATs increasing over 1.5+ inches by Wednesday into Thursday coupled with favorable jet dynamics supporting/enhancing large-scale lift suggests this period mentioned will be one to watch for heavy rain potential, and while the pattern doesn`t scream severe weather it has at least some potential which will need to be monitored. By the end of next week into the start of next weekend there is a lot of uncertainty in the pattern, but seeing some signal in some of the ensemble and deterministic guidance of a trough moving through the region. This could be progressive and bring a 24+ hour period of PoPs late in the period, or as some guidance hints it could develop into a closed low which could impact the forecast in prolonging PoPs and lowering high temperatures, so stay tuned as the details become better defined in the days ahead. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 713 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR will prevail through the period with unrestricted low-level visibility and light winds. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...Uttech