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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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021 FXUS63 KDVN 121009 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 509 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 ...Updated for 12z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and a few storms today, especially this morning with the greatest chances (60-80%) west/south of the Quad Cities. - Fog /some dense/ is possible tonight, particularly in areas that see rain today. - More widespread showers and storms with a threat for heavy rain expected midweek. - Temperatures near seasonal averages by mid to late week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A strong geomagnetic storm brought out the Aurora Borealis / Northern Lights last evening into the overnight, with it visible across parts of the area. But now, clouds continue to increase/thicken ahead of an approaching shortwave, which is aiding a burgeoning area of showers and some storms across western into central Iowa. As this system translates E/SE today, we can expect showers and a few storms to move across the area, particularly this morning mostly from around Hwy 30 on southward. The heaviest QPF is anticipated across far SE Iowa, NE Missouri and perhaps portions of WC Illinois where the better potential for storms will be found and where the 00z HREF LPMM indicates the potential for pockets of 0.5 to 1 inch. We may see additional scattered showers and storms develop this afternoon into early evening mainly near and south of Hwy 30, along a differential heating boundary as the primary vorticity lobe passes. While severe weather is not currently anticipated, as always this time of year with boundaries and vorticity we`ll have to be monitoring for funnels. Highs today will be very challenging. Where the clouds and precipitation linger (favoring the far southern service area) highs will likely be limited into the upper 60s to around 70. Meanwhile, areas that manage to see more in the way of sunshine (favoring north/east of the Quad Cities) will likely get a boost into the mid/upper 70s for highs, and if more sun than anticipated there could be some lower 80s as suggested by some guidance. Surface to mid level ridging will begin to build back in later tonight heading toward midweek. The light flow and decreasing clouds may lead to some fog, particularly in areas that see rain today which could foster pockets of dense fog. Generally dry and near seasonable conditions are expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, with ridging more dominant holding the main boundary and convective spawning grounds just to our west and south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 A strong wave and favorable jet dynamics look to enhance the large scale lift across the region Wednesday/Thursday, bringing the likelihood (60-80%) of widespread rainfall, which could be heavy. This timeframe continues to be highlighted by WPC, with a slight risk for excessive rainfall across much of the service area from 12z Wednesday to 12z Thursday. Current timing seems to start Wednesday afternoon, with increasing coverage through the night and Thursday. The best moisture arrives by Thursday, which is resolved well amongst guidance, hinting at upwards to 2.00" PWATs or higher. Given our past heavy rainfall events this summer, I am not quite sure that we will go much higher than that 2.00" PWAT, as we have underperformed compared to guidance prior. In either case, PWATs between 1.50-2.00" are near or greater than the 90th percentile in climatology, indicating that we can expect heavy rain with any thunderstorms. The strength of the dynamics/forcing suggests we could see some areas wring out all of the PWAT and then some to the tune of 2+ inches of rain. NBM probabilities are 50-60% across a good portion of the area for seeing at least 1 inch or more of rain in the 24 hours ending 12z Thursday. It has been very dry to start the first 11 days of August with negative soil moisture anomalies, but despite this we can`t rule out at least a localized flash flood threat with any repetitive convection given the anomalous moisture and strength of forcing. The severe weather threat appears low, but will have to watch for an elevated hail threat Wednesday night with the ramping LLJ given 30-35+ kts of 0-6 km shear. Then later Thursday we`ll still have to keep tabs on a possible pseudo triple point with some surface based threat, but this is very conditional upon location/timing and sufficient destabilization. Temperatures will be near normal mid to late week, but heading into the weekend temperatures may not be as warm as advertised. The GFS and ECMWF both cut the upper low off over the Great Lakes region, with our area under the western flank of the system. Thus, we would fall under largely northerly to northwesterly flow Friday and through the weekend. This would put us under cold advection and keep the chance for possible wrap-around precipitation into the weekend. Thus, the weekend might trend a bit cooler than normal and remain gloomy. Stay tuned, as these details become better defined over the next few days. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 505 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024 Rain is likely at CID, BRL and MLI this morning with predominantly VFR conditions at CID and MLI, and lowering to MVFR at BRL. Embedded thunder is possible, mainly at BRL but confidence is too low for mention at this time. Additional isolated to scattered showers are possible this afternoon into early evening. Decreasing clouds and light winds tonight should lead to MVFR fog after 06z, with the potential for IFR to VLIFR pockets particularly where rain occurs today. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure/Gunkel AVIATION...McClure