455
FXUS63 KDVN 071031
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
531 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures and humidity levels are expected this
  week.

- There are periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
  tonight through Friday, but with plenty of dry periods
  expected as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Through This Afternoon: A typical July day is expected with
highs in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the 60s. It could
definitely be more humid this time of year, so we`ll take the
slight reprieve. High pressure will remain in control through
the day leading to mainly sunny skies and light winds. An
isolated shower or storm could pop up during peak afternoon
heating as MLCAPE builds to around 1000 J/kg west of the
Mississippi River; with chances under 10% did not mention in
the forecast with this update.

This Evening through Tonight: Convection developing across the
Dakotas into Nebraska during the afternoon/evening will be
tracking to the ESE and could reach western portions of the
outlook area late tonight. Model consensus is for this activity
to weaken as it approaches the area due to waning instability
and weak deep layer shear. Have rain/storm chances increasing
into the 20-40% range through the overnight period, highest
near and north of Cedar Rapids. No severe weather is anticipated.

Tuesday: Scattered showers and storms may be ongoing in the morning
but with an expectation for decreasing coverage with eastward
progression through the outlook area. Redevelopment of
scattered showers and storms during the afternoon will depend on
the track and timing of a potential MCV (from the decaying
Monday night convection) set to reach eastern Iowa either late
Monday night or into Tuesday morning. If the MCV is still in our
area during the afternoon, additional storms could develop with
MLCAPE building to 1000-2000 J/kg. Forecast deep layer shear is
weak, which would preclude a threat for organized severe storms
and SPC has kept the Day 2 Marginal Risk to the south of the
outlook area. Temperatures will be a little cooler due to more
cloud cover, with most areas reaching the low to mid 80s. For
the overnight, expect lows in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Near normal temperatures and humidity levels are anticipated
through the end of the week with highs in the 80s and dewpoints
in the 60s to lower 70s at times. The next decent chance for
more widespread showers and thunderstorms comes in late Thursday
night and Friday as a shortwave trough tracks through the Upper
Midwest with an associated cold front moving through Iowa and
Illinois. Machine Learning guidance is highlighting Friday with
a potential for strong to severe storms across much of eastern Iowa
and northwest Illinois. Confidence is low on the details regarding
timing and coverage this far out. Stay tuned to the forecast as
we get closer to the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Patchy shallow fog is possible early this morning with brief
visibility reductions to MVFR/IFR possible, mainly north of BRL.
The rest of today will be quiet with prevailing VFR. Low chance
for a few isolated storms late in the period but did not mention
in the TAFs due to very low confidence on coverage and timing.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech