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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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377 FXUS63 KDVN 170713 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 213 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cyclonic flow aloft, along with wrap around moisture, and a wave of channeled vorticity will help bring another round of diurnally driven showers and storms this afternoon/early evening. - A remarkably quiet stretch of weather is forecast for Sunday through Friday, with seasonal temperatures.&& .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Today will be more directly impacted by the upper low pressure over the Great Lakes than yesterday, or any day ahead. We will be advecting in cloud cover from the north to start the day, which will initially help keep the north cool through the morning, while partial to mostly sunny skies are found over our south this morning. By afternoon, enough heating is expected to combine with the weak forcing, and PWATs over 1 inch to bring scattered showers and storms to our northeast 2/3. Unlike yesterday, when we built enough CAPE ahead of shower chances that they become strong, today we should see less available CAPE, -weaker- but potentially a bit more widespread area of convective development. QPF is forecast to be very low, however, with PWATs over 1 inch, some heavy downpours are certainly expected with any afternoon shower/storm. The weak lift should move southeast/east of the area by 6-8pm, and with some dry advection toward evening, we should see a quick end to any shower/storms in that period. Highs today, should eventually climb to the upper 70s north to the lower 80s south, with some fluctuations back to the low 70s any time a shower passes through. Tonight, with cloud cover thinning out through the evening, lows in the lower to mid 60s are expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 Sunday through Thursday, we will see an extended period of stable seasonal weather, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day, and lows in the mid 50s to low 60s each night. Towards the end of the period, (Friday and beyond), there is very good agreement in ensemble and deterministic models showing the strong upper high pressure in the southern Plains shifting/expanding northward. This lends to high confidence on warm/hot weather towards the end of the week. Just in time for schools to start! && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 17 2024 An upper low over the Great Lakes will send moisture southeastward from Minnesota into our area early this morning, lingering through Noon, before cigs will rise to VFR during the afternoon hours Saturday. This will be a period of 800 to 1800 ft cigs, with the lowest found in northeast Iowa, near DBQ through 17z. The afternoon will feature lifting cigs, but also a few small showers/storms moving through. These are expected to move over northeast Iowa and northwest Illinois during the 18Z to 00Z time frame, followed by clearing and VFR dry conditions into Saturday night. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Ervin