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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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204 FXUS63 KDVN 151958 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 258 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A severe risk remains for the 6 pm to 11 pm timeframe with all modes of severe weather possible if storms develop. - A pattern change will bring mainly quiet weather to the area Saturday night through next Thursday. Temperatures look to be near normal. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Tonight, uncertainty remains with possible storm development after 6 pm in western parts of the CWA. Trends of the HRRR have been to delay the time of development, which is now showing closer to 6 or 7 in our western CWA. The NAMNEST has only shown some activity in the far SW after 8 pm. MUCAPE values of 2 to 3K J/kg build into the area late this afternoon and evening. This, along with mid level lapse rates over 7 C/km and moderate shear, will all some supercells to be possible with strong winds, hail, and tornadoes all a threat. The caveat is whether the clouds that have been over the area most of the day will clear in time for needed heating for development. Some temps in the low 80s are seen in south central IA as of 2 pm. Moisture is plentiful, with dew points in the lower and middle 70s area wide. Due to these uncertainties, kept POPs in the chance category. As for timing, it looks like areas west of the MS River will see activity from 6 pm to 10 PM, with the eastern CWA seeing it 9 pm to about midnight or 1 am. Overnight, any showers or storms will exit to the east. Some patchy fog is possible overnight, but left mention out of grids for now. Lows will be in the 60s. Friday, a secondary cold front will sweep across the area as the surface low moves across northern WI. Sunshine will prevail south of Highway 30, while clouds and even some shower and thunderstorm chances will be possible to the north. SPC has NW IL in a marginal risk area for wind gusts and hail. Highs will top out in the lower 80s north to upper 80s south. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Largely quiet weather dominates the Quad Cities CWA in the long term as the upper low currently situated over the ND/MN border slowly migrates east over the next several days putting the area into northwest flow. Temperatures are expected to sit generally right around average through Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Temperatures, combined with manageable humidity levels (especially early next week), should make for overall pleasant weather. The focus over this weekend will be on the upper low Saturday as it pushes into Lower Michigan, which could provide enough forcing for a few wrap-around showers over the far eastern portions of our area. The most favored time for shower activity comes during the daytime hours on Saturday. Still, generally low chances (<35%) of precipitation exist, so not expecting anything in the way of widespread rainfall. Shower chances diminish Sunday and beyond as the upper low exits and high pressure builds in. Mid-level ridging builds in by midweek which will nudge temperatures back up into the upper 80s late week. Siemianowski && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1239 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 IFR to MVFR ceilings with low clouds will continue this afternoon with some breaks towards the late afternoon and evening. If some clearing is realized, some showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and traverse the area during the evening hours. This would bring some MVFR conditions in storms, but otherwise VFR conditions should prevail. MLI and BRL will have the best chance for seeing showers or storms so introduced a prob30. CID might see some storms near 00Z before they more east, but opted to leave mention out due to the uncertainty of development and placement. Overnight some visibility reduction into MVFR category may be seen, but left mention out of TAFs at this time. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM...Siemianowski AVIATION...14