640
FXUS63 KDTX 141001
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
601 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Stretch of dry and seasonable weather conditions expected
  today as daytime highs approach the mid 80s.

* Increasing cloud cover and shower potential arrives Thursday
  evening and lingers through the weekend.

* Chance of thunderstorms Friday and Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ridge of high pressure anchored over the area will maintain dry and
stable conditions this taf period. This ensures plenty of clear sky
outside of some high based diurnal cu this afternoon. A light wind
generally from the east to southeast.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms will occur through the TAF
period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

*  None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge  (582-585 DAM at 500 MB) will be building into
the Central Great Lakes through tonight. Any shallow radiation fog
this morning will burn off quickly, and with 850 MB temps of 14 to
15 C advertised, highs in the 80 to 85 degree range can be expected.
Dry mid levels and little to no cape should result in dry day. But
with the weak surface flow and lake breeze interaction there is
technically a non-zero chance a weak shower/sprinkle could develop.

A slow evolving pattern then kicks in for the end of the work week
into the weekend as the copious amount of upper level energy/PV over
the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies leads to a closed 500 MB low
tracking through the Great Lakes region.

This system does look to tap into some good moisture over the
Southern Plains/Gulf of Mexico, with the moisture plume/850-700 MB
Theta-e Ridge arriving Thursday Night, but the deeper moisture (PW
values 2+ inches) looks to be south of the border and then tracking
east. Regardless, plenty of forcing/ascent Thursday night and Friday
to support showers and possible thunderstorms. Wrap around moisture
and surface low slowly moving through Lower Michigan on Saturday
will also lead to additional numerous-widespread showers, likely
lingering into Sunday. 00z Euro ensembles showing a wide range of
QPF outcomes for this Thursday night-Sunday time frame, but appears
like we should see total amounts at least around 1 inch, with
substantial amount of members indicating 2+ inches.

MARINE...

Area of high pressure holds over the region for one last day today
maintaining light winds and dry conditions. Pattern change occurs
Thursday as upper Midwestern low pressure reaches the Great Lakes
resulting in strengthening southeast winds in advance. Peak gusts
looking to occur late Thursday night into Friday with gusts between
20-25kts. Low pressure slowly tracks over the central Great Lakes
Friday through Sunday supporting periods of showers and storms
across the area. With the cooler accompanying airmass and upper
trough overhead, there will be a chance for waterspouts with this
system. Modest (10-20kt) winds shift to north-northwest by late
Saturday on the back side of the low before eventually weakening
Monday with the departure of low pressure.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......KDK

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