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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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698 FXUS63 KDTX 161909 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 309 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... * A slow moving cold front keeps scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms in the forecast into this evening mainly for areas along and north of I-69. A few afternoon showers also possible on Wednesday afternoon as a cooler airmass settles into the area. * High pressure brings cooler and less humid weather into the region for the late week period. && .DISCUSSION... Scattered showers with some thunderstorms will traverse the region this afternoon into this evening in advance of a cold front which will drop south through the area into tonight. With deep shear in the 30-35 knot range and modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg) within a band immediately in advance of the front, a few strong storms are not out of the question with locally gusty wind and/or small hail. A majority of this activity will focus along and north of the I-69 corridor in the late afternoon to mid evening time frame with the loss of daytime heating resulting in a steady diminishing trend after 00z or so. Additional scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two will be possible again Wednesday afternoon as main upper level trough axis driving this front through the area shifts through the Great Lakes. This activity will be enhanced during the peak heating period from mid afternoon into early evening as colder mid level temperature pools shifts overhead and leads to steepening lapse rates. Thereafter, a much quieter and pleasant period sets up as high pressure builds into the area in the wake of this trough. This period will extend from Thursday on through the weekend and more or less into early next week. Daytime high temperatures will settle back into the 70s Wednesday/Thursday and then edge back into the upper 70s/lower 80s this weekend. Meanwhile, low temperatures in the lower/mid 50s will be common late in the week with some moderation back into the upper 50s to around 60 this weekend into early next week. && .MARINE... A cold front is currently analyzed SW-NE between Saginaw Bay and Georgian Bay, contributing to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and immediately ahead of it. This front drifts southeastward through the evening, effectively veering winds from SW to NW in its wake. Widespread wind and wave potential holds below headline criteria, although a stronger thunderstorm could produce gusts up to 35 knots. By Wednesday, surface high pressure begins to fill in although influence of the upper level trough results in isolated showers and storms in the afternoon. Quiet and dry marine conditions are then expected from Thursday into the weekend as high pressure becomes more established overhead. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 AVIATION... Weak cold front will slowly sink south through southeast through this evening. Limited instability and moisture (dry mid levels) will limit shower and any thunderstorm coverage. Best forcing/moisture convergence looks to be across northern TAF sites this afternoon, and have included showers, but low confidence with thunderstorms developing. It remains possible for some shower/isolated thunderstorm activity to reach southern tafs by early this evening as well, but confidence not high enough to include in tafs. Southwest winds briefly gusting in the 15-20 knot range early this afternoon become lighter and shift to the northwest this evening. Light northwest winds tonight into tomorrow will usher in drier air in the low levels, but still expecting a SCT-BKN VFR cu up during the day, with isolated showers also popping up. For DTW/D21 Convection...Very low (<10 percent) chance for a pop up thunderstorm late this afternoon into early evening. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * Low for ceilings aob 5000 ft this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. * Very low for a thunderstorm 20-3z. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...None. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DG MARINE.......MV AVIATION.....SF You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.