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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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751 FXUS63 KDMX 102336 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 636 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant rest of today and most of Sunday, then showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday evening into Monday. - Warming temperatures into the mid 80s this week with chances for thunderstorms off and on. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 Another pleasant day across the area with northwest flow keeping the area cool in the low to mid 70s and low humidity. A few weak waves, noted in the previous discussion, have brought scattered cloud cover to the area this afternoon. Overnight this will pass east, swapping winds around to out of the south for Sunday. While not strong, this southerly flow will help nudge temperatures up a couple degrees on Sunday, but still pleasant and cooler than average for this time of year in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. At the same time a wave will pass across the central plains Sunday afternoon, moving towards Iowa Sunday evening overnight into Monday morning. The better instability axis remains off to the west where SPC has outlines a marginal severe weather risk. Into Iowa instability is modest and timing is into the evening and overnight which rules out the enhancement with daytime heating, but deep layer shear is higher than we`ve seen in some time at 40-50 kts. While overall severe threat is quiet low, thunderstorms are expected overnight into Sunday morning. Most CAMs identify the central plains thunderstorms growing upscale and then weakening as they pass across Iowa through the overnight and early morning hours. The axis of heavier precipitation with these storms varies, but a swath of 1-2 inches of rain is possible across southern Iowa. Solutions diverge into the upcoming week, but the main theme is temperatures returning closer to average in the low to mid 80s as the thermal ridge rebuilds out to the west. Another wave looks to pass across the area mid to late week, however there is considerable variability and details at this range are fuzzy. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024 VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Wind shift expected over the afternoon hours for eastern and central terminals, albeit with light winds throughout. Rain to approach KFOD shortly after the conclusion of the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Jimenez