751
FXUS63 KDMX 102336
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
636 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant rest of today and most of Sunday, then
  showers and a few thunderstorms Sunday evening into Monday.

- Warming temperatures into the mid 80s this week with chances
  for thunderstorms off and on.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

Another pleasant day across the area with northwest flow keeping the
area cool in the low to mid 70s and low humidity. A few weak waves,
noted in the previous discussion, have brought scattered cloud
cover to the area this afternoon. Overnight this will pass east,
swapping winds around to out of the south for Sunday. While not
strong, this southerly flow will help nudge temperatures up a
couple degrees on Sunday, but still pleasant and cooler than
average for this time of year in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees.

At the same time a wave will pass across the central plains Sunday
afternoon, moving towards Iowa Sunday evening overnight into Monday
morning. The better instability axis remains off to the west where
SPC has outlines a marginal severe weather risk. Into Iowa
instability is modest and timing is into the evening and overnight
which rules out the enhancement with daytime heating, but deep
layer shear is higher than we`ve seen in some time at 40-50 kts.
While overall severe threat is quiet low, thunderstorms are
expected overnight into Sunday morning. Most CAMs identify the
central plains thunderstorms growing upscale and then weakening
as they pass across Iowa through the overnight and early
morning hours. The axis of heavier precipitation with these
storms varies, but a swath of 1-2 inches of rain is possible
across southern Iowa.

Solutions diverge into the upcoming week, but the main theme is
temperatures returning closer to average in the low to mid 80s as
the thermal ridge rebuilds out to the west. Another wave looks to
pass across the area mid to late week, however there is
considerable variability and details at this range are fuzzy.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Aug 10 2024

VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Wind shift
expected over the afternoon hours for eastern and central
terminals, albeit with light winds throughout. Rain to approach
KFOD shortly after the conclusion of the TAF period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Jimenez