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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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025 FXUS63 KDMX 162325 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 625 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and rumbles of thunderstorms in the northeast this afternoon and early evening. Severe weather threat is minimal. - Return of some widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon. - Quiet, fair weather expected to last until precipitation chances return late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A stacked upper level system continued to swirl across the upper Midwest this afternoon with its warm sector located far to the northeast of the area. What remains is areas of showers and a few thunderstorms embedded in a broken deck of clouds. Pockets of clearing will allow the boundary layer to mix out and realize CAPE at the magnitude of a few hundred J/kg. Enough for convection, but not enough for severe weather. Well-mixed near storm environments may offer the chance of funnel clouds in the remaining daylight hours, especially near the weak surface boundary identified by localized wind enhancements in northeast Iowa. CAA will delay PBL decoupling to an hour or two after sunset, delaying the end of some sprinkles and gusty winds. Stratus will develop overnight in the northeast and linger into Saturday afternoon when more widely scattered showers will be possible. Partly sunny skies can be found elsewhere Saturday with highs near 80. Largely uneventful weather is expected through the first half of next week as high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures will remain below normal for mid August. Southerly winds return on the back side of the departing high by Wednesday, warming temperatures back towards average. Rain will return to the forecast once the main axis of Gulf moisture can return late next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 Mostly VFR ceiling across the northern half of Iowa persist this evening with isolated showers. The precipitation threat ends overnight with northwest surface winds continuing. Stratocumulus field remains into Saturday with a few isolated showers in northeast Iowa but mostly VFR conditions persist through the day as northwest winds remain. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jimenez AVIATION...Cogil