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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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720 FXUS63 KDMX 161948 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 248 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and rumbles of thunderstorms in the northeast this afternoon and early evening. Severe weather threat is minimal. - Return of some widely scattered showers Saturday afternoon. - Quiet, fair weather expected to last until precipitation chances return late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 A stacked upper level system continued to swirl across the upper Midwest this afternoon with its warm sector located far to the northeast of the area. What remains is areas of showers and a few thunderstorms embedded in a broken deck of clouds. Pockets of clearing will allow the boundary layer to mix out and realize CAPE at the magnitude of a few hundred J/kg. Enough for convection, but not enough for severe weather. Well-mixed near storm environments may offer the chance of funnel clouds in the remaining daylight hours, especially near the weak surface boundary identified by localized wind enhancements in northeast Iowa. CAA will delay PBL decoupling to an hour or two after sunset, delaying the end of some sprinkles and gusty winds. Stratus will develop overnight in the northeast and linger into Saturday afternoon when more widely scattered showers will be possible. Partly sunny skies can be found elsewhere Saturday with highs near 80. Largely uneventful weather is expected through the first half of next week as high pressure remains over the region. Temperatures will remain below normal for mid August. Southerly winds return on the back side of the departing high by Wednesday, warming temperatures back towards average. Rain will return to the forecast once the main axis of Gulf moisture can return late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM CDT Fri Aug 16 2024 MVFR cigs to coat the far northern part of the area this afternoon, beginning at KMCW. Have kept VFR at KFOD for now due to low confidence in lower cigs reaching that far southwest. Showers can also be expected through the next 6-8 hours for KMCW and KALO with low confidence thunderstorms possible during the daylight hours. Coverage will be widely scattered and short- lived. MVFR to IFR stratus focus in the northeast after 06z and into the early morning hours, not improving until after the conclusion of the TAF period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Jimenez AVIATION...Jimenez