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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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828 FXUS63 KDMX 161127 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 627 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler today with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Few chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms north and west. Severe weather threat is low, but some stronger wind gusts possible southwest. - Pleasant weather takes over through the remainder of the work week. - Additional shower and thunderstorm chances possible west through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Following a busy weather day in Iowa, things have finally begun to quiet down across the state this morning. The surface boundary that brought severe weather to much of the state tonight has now drifted south into northern Missouri. Despite the still humid conditions out there early this morning, cooler temperatures have begun to slowly fill in behind the boundary. The airmass overhead will steadily cool and dry out through today and tonight, with highs only reaching the upper 70s to low 80s today and dewpoints falling into the 60s then 50s by Wednesday. The airmass change comes thanks to the upper level trough that continues to dig in from the north and push aside the upper ridging over the southwest CONUS. This will eventually place us under surface high pressure through the rest of the week, which will bring dry and pleasant conditions to the state. However, before this drier weather occurs, we may see a few more showers and occasional thunderstorms both north and west today. The northern chances will be associated with the trough digging south, as a focused area of mid-level moisture transport pools moisture along an approaching low level boundary. This feature can be seen producing showers and thunderstorms over the Dakotas early this morning, and will progress south into the region this afternoon and evening. The forcing along the boundary doesnt appear overly strong, but there will be a decent amount of moisture still present, so any lift that can occur should be able to produce a few showers today. Fortunately, severe weather is unlikely with only ~500 J/kg of CAPE within a shallow layer ahead of the boundary, although a few rumbles of thunder are certainly possible. The other area of shower and thunderstorm chances will be over western Iowa today as a a weak shortwave ejects east out of the high plains region. This will occur ahead of the aforementioned synoptic feature, so the environment will be similar for the two areas of storms, aside from some slightly drier low levels in southwest IOwa, which may lead to some stronger wind gusts. SPC does have a marginal risk for severe weather clipping southwestern Iowa for today, likely for possible wind gusts and in case any of the better instability to our north or west leaks into the area. Therefore, aside from a few stronger wind gusts, today`s severe weather risk looks low at this time, barring any unexpected movement of the surface boundary to our south. After today, conditions become quite pleasant through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be seasonal in the upper 70s to low 80s with dew points in the 50s, all under mostly clear skies and light winds. After this much needed break from the heat and active weather, we may be looking at more thunderstorm chances again going into the weekend. These will come as a broad upper trough develops overhead and shortwaves propagate through the roughly northwest to almost due north flow. That being said, current guidance has this mainly to the west of the state for now, and the pattern looks fairly disorganized. Therefore, will continue to monitor weekend thunderstorm chances in future forecast cycles. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Some patchy fog has developed again this morning, mainly impacting KOTM and potentially KALO. This fog should burn off in the next few hours as the sun rises. Primarily VFR conditions then prevail through the rest of the day, barring impacts from any sporadic showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Confidence is low on exact location of this precipitation, so have only included VCSH at KMCW where the best chances for rain/storms are and will continue to evaluate today. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Dodson AVIATION...Dodson