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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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737 FXUS63 KDMX 162342 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 642 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few spotty showers this afternoon and evening, mainly west and north. - Cooler temperatures will make for a pleasant end to the week. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 An upper level trough has edged into the area, swapping our flow around to northerly and allowing for cooler air to filter into the state. This has kept temperature today much more comfortable than have been seen the past several days, remaining in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees this afternoon. Two weak embedded waves are set to move across the area today. The first has remained across western Iowa much of the day, resulting in a few weak showers there. These are expected to taper off later this afternoon. Next up is a wave moving across South Dakota and Nebraska today, which can be picked up in GOES satellite imagery. Earlier shower activity with this wave has already tapered off this afternoon. As the wave moves into Iowa this evening a few CAMs indicate that additional showers may briefly develop. While this is possible with weak convergence available, do not expect much more than showers as instability is weak and generally under 500 J/kg. The rest of the week will be quite pleasant, so if you`ve been putting off outdoor activities now is the time! Expect to see daytime highs in the upper 70s and low 80s and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s with low humidity. By this weekend a shortwave embedded within the larger trough is expected to pass across the midwest. As this happens models have indicated that it may slow down, deepening into a cutoff low over area. This will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms back to the area this weekend, however with lingering uncertainty regarding the synoptic progression, timing and strength of precipitation cannot be well determined at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions ongoing and expected to continue through the TAF period. Few lingering showers or sprinkles southeast with the possibility for a few additional scattered showers mainly west. These should pose little to no impacts to TAF sites for the most part and if any rain would occur, it would be light and brief generally precluding any precipitation mentions at KOTM, with any new activity tonight, if any, generally west of KFOD. Otherwise winds generally out of the north under 10 knots tonight may become light and variable at times before increasing towards 10-12 knots with a few gusts towards 15-20 knots during the daytime Wednesday. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...KCM