326
FXUS63 KDMX 171728
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and dry weather through the remainder of the work
  week.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, but
  overall severe threat looks low at this time.

- Additional diurnally-driven, airmass thunderstorms possible
  into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Its been a quiet and comfortable morning across the area as surface
high pressure and widespread subsidence finally begins to set in
overhead. With this high pressure in place through the remainder of
the work week, expect dry and pleasant weather with sunny skies,
highs in the 70s to low 80s, and dewpoints in the 50s. Likewise,
winds remain light to occasionally breezy through Friday as well.
Barring the unlikely event of an isolated shower or two, this will
be a great few days to enjoy some time outside!

At the upper levels, the overall pattern through the next few days
shows the thermal ridge getting pushed back to the southwest CONUS
and a large trough setting up over the rest of the US. The parent
trough eventually departs east late this week, but multiple weaker
waves will maintain a general troughing pattern overhead and keep
the thermal ridge off to the west. While the hotter temperatures
stay outside of the state through the forecast period, we will trend
towards a north-northwest flow pattern by the weekend. This brings
the return of precipitation chances late Friday through Saturday as
a shortwave propagating through the larger scale flow drops through
the state. Fortunately, with the weak troughing overhead, flow
throughout the layer should be quite weak, limiting the chances for
significant severe weather. Therefore, precipitation will
likely come in the form of showers and disorganized
thunderstorms. Of course, this is still a few days out, so the
nature of these storms will be better assessed as we draw
nearer.


As the shortwave departs on Sunday, we are left with weak upper
level low pressure overhead. With no signs of synoptic scale forcing
expected, this will leave us in a pattern that is neither producing
large scale lift or subsidence. Therefore, guidance is kicking out
diurnally driven shower and thunderstorm chances through the
beginning of next week. With marginal instability and minimal shear,
these will likely manifest as scattered airmass thunderstorms that
could conceptually produce gusty winds, but will want to wait to
determine possible severity until closer to next week. Otherwise,
expect seasonal conditions through the period with a much needed
break from the heat and severe weather we`ve been seeing as of
late.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Scattered cumulus has developed early this afternoon with wind
mixing out and gusting 15-20 kts. By sunset expect to see clouds
diminish and winds relax. Similar conditions are expected on
Thursday. VFR conditions will prevail thorugh the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dodson
AVIATION...Hagenhoff