169
FXUS63 KDMX 181932
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
232 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued mild and dry weather to close out the work week

- Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the forecast for
  the weekend, but are expected to remain sub-severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

If you enjoyed Wednesday`s weather you`re probably loving today`s as
well! We`ve seen temperatures warm into the upper 70s and low
80s this afternoon. At the same time, scattered cumulus have
bloomed across the area coincident with day time heating. Wind
are lighter today as high pressure passes across the area. In a
near rinse and repeat, Friday will be much the same with mild
temperatures, low humidity, and plenty of sunshine.

The cycle comes to an end Friday evening as a shortwave out of
Canada drops south towards the midwest, riding the periphery of the
western US thermal ridge. Forcing is weak with the wave as it moves
across and models continue to indicate little instability as well.
As such, expect diffuse shower activity across beginning in the west
on Friday evening and spreading across the area on Saturday.
With little shear or instability, severe storms are not
expected. The previous discussion mentioned the potential for
funnel cloud development on Saturday as the system slows and
develops into an upper level cutoff low over the area. This
remains possible but will depend on how the low tracks across
the area and if cloudiness during the day suppresses the afternoon
stretching potential. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday
morning through midday, then the should dry out late afternoon
into the evening as the system pushes towards the east.

The wave slows just east of the area while the western ridge
remains fairly stationary into the first half of next week. With
weak lift but not much of a kinematic forcing mechanism, expect
that scattered diurnally forced showers and thunderstorms will
be possible most afternoons to start off next week. Severe
storms are not expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Scattered afternoon cumulus deck developing across the state as
winds shift around to out of the southeast by tonight. VFR
conditions will prevail through the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Hagenhoff