083
FXUS63 KDMX 190425
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1125 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued mild and dry weather to close out the work week

- Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the forecast for
  the weekend, but are expected to remain sub-severe.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

If you enjoyed Wednesday`s weather you`re probably loving today`s as
well! We`ve seen temperatures warm into the upper 70s and low
80s this afternoon. At the same time, scattered cumulus have
bloomed across the area coincident with day time heating. Wind
are lighter today as high pressure passes across the area. In a
near rinse and repeat, Friday will be much the same with mild
temperatures, low humidity, and plenty of sunshine.

The cycle comes to an end Friday evening as a shortwave out of
Canada drops south towards the midwest, riding the periphery of the
western US thermal ridge. Forcing is weak with the wave as it moves
across and models continue to indicate little instability as well.
As such, expect diffuse shower activity across beginning in the west
on Friday evening and spreading across the area on Saturday.
With little shear or instability, severe storms are not
expected. The previous discussion mentioned the potential for
funnel cloud development on Saturday as the system slows and
develops into an upper level cutoff low over the area. This
remains possible but will depend on how the low tracks across
the area and if cloudiness during the day suppresses the afternoon
stretching potential. Similar conditions are expected on Sunday
morning through midday, then the should dry out late afternoon
into the evening as the system pushes towards the east.

The wave slows just east of the area while the western ridge
remains fairly stationary into the first half of next week. With
weak lift but not much of a kinematic forcing mechanism, expect
that scattered diurnally forced showers and thunderstorms will
be possible most afternoons to start off next week. Severe
storms are not expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR conditions will persist for much of the period with the
possible exception occurring late in the period. Some mid-level
cloud development is possible overnight across mainly northwest
Iowa. Cumulus will form again Friday in the 4-5 kft base range
and may become BKN at times, especially near KFOD/KMCW. A few
showers may approach KFOD late in the period along with
descending cigs. The wind will be light overnight then southerly
at 5-8 kts during the day Friday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Donavon