632
FXUS63 KDMX 191151
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
651 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued mild and dry weather today.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the forecast tonight
  and continue off and on this weekend, but the threat for any
  severe weather remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Another quiet night is ongoing with pleasant weather expected to
continue during the day time hours today as well. Early morning
temperatures are on the cool side for mid July and in the low 50s to
mid 60s across the area with light and variable winds thanks to the
high pressure remaining overhead. Mid-level clouds have started to
increase over especially western Iowa as warm air advection
continues to increase in that area with additional daytime cumulus
expected to develop as well prior to overall cloud cover increasing
tonight ahead of the approaching shortwave. Temperatures today will
again be in the mid 70s to low 80s.

The aforementioned shortwave drops south through the Northern Plains
towards the area through the day today returning showers and a few
possible storms back to the forecast tonight mainly in the west
before precipitation chances nudge eastward on Saturday. As
mentioned in the last several discussions, forcing remains weak
in our area with the better forcing west of the area where
shower/storm chances remain higher tonight. Instability values
remain meager with low shear values keeping severe weather out
of the forecast tonight as well.

Although precipitation chances move east through the day Saturday,
coverage looks to be scattered so it certainly won`t be a wash out,
though showers and storms may be possible at times for any with
outdoor plans. Overall severe weather threat remains low with more
limited instability and shear values, however, will have to continue
to monitor the track of the low as it moves and sits over central
Iowa as well as the amount of early day cloud cover as with
clearing, could have the potential for some funnel clouds, as
mentioned in the last several discussions.

With an upper ridge over the western U.S. and a fairly stagnant
trough over the eastern U.S. the wave over Iowa is slow to move out
keeping periodic shower and storm chances around to end the weekend
and start the new work week with most of the precipitation chances
diurnally driven and severe weather chances low. Temperatures for
mid to heading into later July remain on the more pleasant side and
in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions continue through much of the TAF period though
cloud cover will continue to increase today with cumulus
developing around flight level 040-060 which may be SCT-BKN at
times, especially at northern sites of KFOD/KMCW. Skies will
become BKN-OVC through much of the area late tonight into early
Saturday but are expected to remain VFR at this time. Showers
and a few storms may also start to near KFOD near to after 06Z
but exact timing and coverage of storms remains too uncertain at
this time to include explicit mentions. Winds will be generally
be light, under 10 knots, and out of the south to southeast
through the period.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KCM
AVIATION...KCM