108
FXUS63 KDMX 081930
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
230 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Low-end chances for a few showers/storms north
  afternoon/evening today and Tuesday.

* More widespread showers/storm activity likely Wednesday.

* Precipitation chances subside, heat builds in through the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Conditions across the area early this afternoon remain predominantly
quiet with light surface flow and blossoming cumulus fields. While
the bulk of the large scale lift has begun to shift eastward as the
upper trough continues to pivot through, a few weak showers and
isolated thunder remain expected across northern. This activity,
should remain primarily across the northern 3-4 tiers of counties
where best profiles and weak large scale lift best align. Forecast
soundings are not substantially different in areas south of northern
Iowa and recent hi-res runs have hinted at isolated activity into
central and even southern Iowa early this evening, but have held off
on expanding PoPs that far for the time being. Nothing more than
brief moderate rainfall and occasional lightning. This will largely
rinse/repeat Tuesday afternoon with similar profiles and transient
weak lift sliding in afternoon/evening.

Beryl remnants remain expected to pass harmlessly to the southeast
of the state Tuesday/Wednesday, keeping bulk of precipitation across
Missouri and Illinois. The primary effect locally will be continued
weak surface and flow aloft during this time frame, hence some of
the weak/isolated shower/thunder mentioned previously.

By Wednesday, synoptic suites remain consistent in dropping a
shortwave through the N/NW large scale flow and through the state
and more widespread shower/thunder areal coverage vs today and
Tuesday. With continued weak flow through the column, activity will
remain scattered/unorganized and pulsey in nature, providing
brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and lightning.

Rounding out the workweek and into the weekend, western CONUS ridge
begins to encroach into the central CONUS, allowing warmer to hot
temperatures to build into the region. Depictions remain pretty
consistent across the suites into/through the weekend with 20s deg C
850mb temps building in, yielding highs returning to the 90s deg F
in many areas along with heat index values around/into the lower
100s deg F. Into next week, uncertainty in the evolution of the
ridge/trough pattern amplify, but some semblance of warmer than
present conditions are favored. &&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail across the area through the
period. FEW/SCT ceilings around 3kft may be experienced, but
rise/mix higher over the next few hours. Light W/NW winds giving
way to light variable overnight. A few isolated showers/thunder
may be seen north this afternoon into evening, but confidence
did not warrant mentions at KFOD/KMCW/KALO at this time.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis