027
FXUS63 KDLH 082343
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
643 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Afternoon showers and storms once again will dissipate shortly after
  sunset. No severe weather is expected but some brief heavy
  downpours with pea sized hail is possible.

- Patchy dense fog will be possible in the morning once again with
  visibilities dropping to less than 1/2 mile.

- Similar conditions for tomorrow with storms firing off in the afternoon
  once again. Smokey skies aloft will also enter due to
  Canadian Wildfires.

- Temperatures trends for this weekend look warm with highs
  climbing into the 90s. A Heat Advisory may be needed for the
  Brainerd Lakes Region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Current Conditions/Today:

Broad upper level troughing persists across the Upper Midwest this
afternoon. Satellite reveals blossoming cu fields with radar
indicating thunderstorm cells filling in across the Arrowhead and NW
WI. Like we have seen for the past several days these storms are
largely diurnally driven and will be scattered in nature. Lack of
upper level flow will lend itself to no severe storms. Instability
is somewhat notable with MLCAPEs of 1000 J/kg. This should be
enough to generate some pea sized hail at times but lack of storm
tilt this afternoon will lead to shallow storms collapsing on
themselves. The only other concern with these storms is some
minor flooding. Surface streamlines highlight a corridor of good
convergence south of Sawyer where training storms have been
ongoing. Depending on how this line shifts it may impact our
CWA. Storm activity quickly diminishes after sunset and
overnight could see some patchy fog develop once again. High res
guidance suggests a 40-60% chance of fog reducing visibility to
less then a half a mile.

Tomorrow:

Rinse and repeat of the previous day. Upper level trough with
cyclonic flow aloft paired with the summer sun and PWATs of over an
inch will lead to pop up thunderstorms in the afternoon. The same
convective parameter space still applies. Negligible shear but
modest instability producing scattered storms some capable of small
hail and brief heavy downpours. Activity wanes after sunset and some
patchy fog in the morning can`t be ruled out.

Smoke/Tuesday:

Wildfire smoke from Canadian fire in northern British Columbia and
Alberta may slide through the Northland over the next several days.
The HRRR smoke model keeps the majority of the smoke aloft with a
few pockets mixing down to the surface at times. The higher
concentrations aloft look to move in Tuesday. Afternoon rain showers
could help pull some of this concentration to the surface. Currently
the MPCA has the northern MN highlighted in a "high end" moderate
for AQI. No Air Quality Alerts at this time.

Midweek into the weekend:

Wednesday could see some additional diurnally driven storms in the
afternoon once again. Upper level ridging starts to push in from the
west Thursday with dry air pushing in from Canada. Thursday will be
a precipitation free day with highs starting to climb into the upper
80s. This warming trend continues into the weekends with highs
climbing into the 90s for portions of the Northland. Min T`s for the
weekend won`t offer too much in heat relief either with lows staying
into the 60s. A Heat Advisory may be needed for the weekend, most
likely in the Brainerd Lakes Region. There may be a return of severe
weather this weekend as well with the CSU probabilities starting to
move into the Northland. However, there still remains a fair bit of
disagreement among the 12Z suite of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Lingering thunderstorms will begin to dissipate in the next few
hours, and skies will clear. HIB and HYR once again have the
chance for patchy fog tonight. Since the setup for tonight is
similar to last night, there`s no reason to believe it won`t
happen again tonight. BRD and INL may also get fog again, but
those have more uncertainty. Daytime cumulus will return in the
late morning tomorrow, along with smoke aloft from Canadian
wildfires. Thunderstorms are possible again tomorrow afternoon,
but with a lot less coverage so they are less likely to affect
the terminals. However, an isolated thunderstorm or two is not
out of the question.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Light winds through the forecast period. Main item of note is the
diurnally driven thunderstorms that have popped up this afternoon.
This activity will wane after sunset and no severe weather is
expected. Expect additional round of thunderstorms to populate in the
afternoon for Tuesday and Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

A Flood Advisory continues across portions of the Rainy River
Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as
the Rainy Lake outlet. This advisory has been extended through
Friday, but as headwaters level begin to crest, may be trimmed
in its areal extent through the week. Lingering high water from
rains in June continue across the Rainy River Basin. Far
headwaters gauges on the Kawishiwi River, Basswood River, and
Lake Vermilion have crested and are slowly but surely coming
down, but remain elevated (Lake Vermilion still a foot above its
pre-rain level). The Vermilion River continues to fall once
again, falling at a rate of a couple inches each day, and the
River Flood Warning was able to be canceled earlier this
afternoon as these recessions are expected to continue. This
has allowed the lake level increases on Crane Lake to slow
considerably, with less than an inch of rise in the last 24
hours. Lac La Croix levels are beginning to show signs of
cresting, as rises in the last day have been less than an inch
as well (around 2cm), after some much faster rates of rise
earlier this month. All this high water continues to lead to
steady rises on downstream lakes, notably Namakan/Kabetogama
(Nam/Kab) lakes where minor flooding continues, and on Rainy
Lake where levels are high but no flooding is ongoing, per
latest reports and webcams. Per the latest IJC water level
bulletin, dam operators are working to maximize outflow through
the basin. However, the sheer volume of water moving through
will still result in additional rises on these lakes. As water
levels upstream crest and begin to come down, rates of rise on
Nam/Kab should begin to slow and eventually crest, and levels
continue. We`ve already seen the rates of rise begin to
demonstrate signs of slowing. From July 1 to 3rd, Nam/Kab Lakes
were rising at 2- 2.5" per day, but have slowed to 1-1.5"/day
over the weekend. General guidance suggests peak levels on
Nam/Kab could be possible this week, but that is uncertain. As
is usual for this basin, water will move slowly and recessions
will happen at glacial speeds. Additional rainfall may cause
brief rises in tributaries and extend the period of high water
in core lakes. Boaters should expect high water, potentially
hidden underwater hazards (including submerged docks), and
strong currents in constricted areas. Generally light winds are
expected, except for possible brief erratic gusts out of
thunderstorms, so wave heights should remain fairly minimal.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Britt
HYDROLOGY...Levens