619
FXUS63 KDLH 100537
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1237 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon and tomorrow
  afternoon. Severe weather is not anticipated.

- Warm temperatures begin Thursday and continue to increase through
  the weekend. Heat Advisories may be needed.

- Severe weather chances may return the weekend as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Current Conditions/Today:

Another day of broad upper level troughing over the region promoting
cyclonic flow aloft. Fields of cumulus once again populate this
afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Model
guidance is in fairly good agreement carrying a corridor of
instability from the Red River Valley through the Brainerd Lakes
region. We are still lacking in the shear department so storms
will be shallow in nature. Additionally, satellite is showing
hazy skies filtering in from the Canadian Wildfires in northern
British Columbia and Alberta. We haven`t had any reports of
smoke making it to the surface but rain showers this afternoon
could help pull some of it down.

Wednesday:

One more day of upper level troughing and PWATs high enough to
sustain scattered showers and storms developing in the afternoon.
Bulk shear does increase a bit with speeds up to 20-25kts. Still not
quite high enough to warrant concerns for severe weather. But it is
enough to produce a few strong storms capable of producing small
hail and wind gusts of 40 mph.

Thursday-Weekend:

Precipitation free across the Northland for Thursday as an upper
level ridge builds in from the west. Temperatures will be on the
rise with highs climbing into the 80s. This trend continues into the
weekend with upper 80s and 90s expected by Sunday. Overnight
temperatures for Saturday and Sunday remain in the 60s providing
little relief. There does still remain some waffling in
temperature guidance with swings of 3-6F between forecast
packages. This is primarily a result of differences in upper
level patterns and whether or not we may be inundated with some
precipitation. Speaking of precipitation. There is concern for
severe weather to make a return this weekend. High instability
builds in Saturday but with the warm air aloft there will be
capping issues. Even stronger instability is progged for Sunday
with possibly some decent shear to pair with it. Still a lot of
variability in system progression and placement but worth
keeping an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Calm to light winds and predominately clear skies will allow
fog to form near KHIB/KBRD tonight, and have included a period
of MVFR to near-MVFR visibilities for the early morning hours.
There is a less than 20% chance for IFR visibilities in fog, but
have held off on this lower visibility mention for now. May need
amendments tonight depending on how observations trend. Diurnal
isolated to widely scattered showers and storms are likely to
develop again this afternoon into early evening, and have
kept VCSH groups and scattered cloud bases of 4 to 5kft in the
TAFs. Confidence in storms in the vicinity of the terminals
remains low enough (less than 20%) with this forecast to keep
thunder mention out of the TAFs for now.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Light winds through the forecast period. Main item of note is the
diurnally driven thunderstorms that have popped up this afternoon.
This activity will wane after sunset and no severe weather is
expected. Expect additional round of thunderstorms to populate in the
afternoon for Wednesday.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

A Flood Advisory continues across portions of the Rainy River
Basin, extending as far east as Lac La Croix and as far west as the
Rainy Lake outlet. This advisory has been extended through Friday,
but as levels in waterways further east crest, it may be trimmed in
its areal extent through the week. However, for areas further west
the Advisory may need to be extended in time. Lingering high water
from rains in June continue across the Rainy River Basin. The
Vermilion River continues to fall and the River Flood Warning was
cancelled yesterday. This has allowed the lake level increases on
Crane Lake to slow considerably, with less than an inch of rise in
the last 24 hours. Crane Lake may crest sometime in the next few
days, with minimal additional rises. Lac La Croix levels are
cresting and should begin to slowly recede through this week.

All this high water continues to lead to steady rises on downstream
lakes, notably Namakan/Kabetogama (Nam/Kab) lakes where minor
flooding continues, and on Rainy Lake where levels have just exceed
the rule curve. Past events have shown there is a lag between the
crest at Lac La Croix and the crest on Namakan lake of anywhere from
3 to 10 days (the longer coming from events when rain fell around
peak waters). As water levels upstream crest and begin to come down,
rates of rise on Nam/Kab should begin to slow and eventually crest,
possibly by late this week or this weekend. Rates of rise have
slowed to 1-1.5"/day over the weekend and in the last 24 hours there
was only about a 0.5-1" rise on Kabetogama/Namakan as inflows are
decreasing. Until peak, another 3-8 inches of rise could be possible
(estimate, not an official forecast), with the high end of that
range probably being a worst case scenario. This could bring Nam/Kab
just over 1120 feet with a peak level somewhat similar to the high
water during the summer of 2014. This is still 2 feet or more below
the high water levels of Spring 2022 - we are nowhere close to that
level of flooding and extreme rises to that point are currently not
expected. As is usual for this basin, water will move slowly and
recessions will happen at glacial speeds with some flavor of high
water possibly continuing through the month. However, peak should
happen sooner rather than later, based on latest observations.
Additional rainfall may cause brief rises in tributaries and extend
the period of high water in core lakes. Boaters should expect high
water, potentially hidden underwater hazards (including submerged
docks), and strong currents in constricted areas. Generally light
winds are expected, except for possible brief erratic gusts out of
thunderstorms, so wave heights should remain fairly minimal.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Britt
HYDROLOGY...Levens