718
FXUS63 KDLH 161715
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20% to 40% chance for scattered showers and storms this
  afternoon, especially in northeast Minnesota.

- Temperatures trend a little cooler through Wednesday, then
  warming into the weekend.

- Dry weather Wednesday through Friday, then perhaps some rain
  returns Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

There is a mixture of mostly clear skies and some areas of cloud
cover and fog out there this morning. The fog is resulting in
visibility as low as 1/2 mile around Hayward, but webcams
suggest that coverage is pretty localized in northwest
Wisconsin.

The fog is expected to lift shortly after sunrise, but there
should still be a fair bit of clouds hanging around for some
places as an upper level trough swings through this morning.
Multiple waves of cyclonic vorticity will advect through, and
combined with cold air advection that will produce some steep
low-level lapse rates approaching 8 to 9 C/km, scattered showers
and perhaps thunderstorms can be expected through this
afternoon and early evening (20-40% chance). Strong to severe
storms are not expected as there won`t be much CAPE to work with
overall (maybe a few hundred J/kg). These will instead be
shallow (i.e. low-topped) garden-variety showers and storms
that will be nuisance-level in intensity. PWATs less than 1"
will not be supportive for much in the way of heavy rain either.
Expect amounts less than 0.1" for most places and perhaps a bit
higher for areas that do see a short-lived storm or two pass
over.

Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies today with highs
in the 70s. As we go into tonight, lingering showers will
gradually end in the evening. A few may persist after sunset a
bit with some synoptic lift aloft remaining over the region.

Cool northerly flow is expected on Wednesday, and this is
expected to be the coolest day of the week with highs in the low
70s for most. High pressure approaching from the west will
ensure plenty of sunshine.

Temperatures gradually warm up later this week as high pressure
passes through from west to east and winds turn southerly on
the back side of the high. The weather is expected to remain dry
through Friday, then the broader ridging pattern aloft may start
to break down a bit going into Saturday. Some shower and storm
chances may return at times starting Saturday and lingering into
early next week. Highs in the low to mid 80s will make the
weather feel a bit toasty once again.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Widely VFR conditions through the forecast period. Diurnally driven
cumulus has begun to populate across the region which may incite
some showers and an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. Some of
the CAMs suggest a weak line of showers may persist (30%) into the
early evening hours before tapering off. High pressure moves in
tomorrow with no precipitation currently expected with fair weather
cumulus popping in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

West to northwest winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon
with gusts to 15 to 20 kt and wave heights up to 2 ft, mainly
along the South Shore and north-facing Apostle Islands. 20%
chance for scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm this
afternoon and early evening. Wind speeds and gusts remain
roughly persistent tonight through Wednesday morning, then
decrease gradually Wednesday afternoon as high pressure
approaches from the west.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A Flood Advisory continues through this afternoon across
portions of the Rainy River Basin, extending from Lac La Croix
to as far west as the Rainy Lake outlet. High water has been
slow to move through the system due to the heavy rains in June
and more intermittent rainfall in the first half of July.
However, most river and lake levels have crested already with
the exception of Rainy Lake, which appears to be cresting now.
While we expect high water to persist, conditions are expected
to gradually improve with little widespread rainfall in the
forecast for the rest of this week. Additional rainfall chances
are possible starting this weekend, but at this time, rainfall
amounts appear low enough such that they shouldn`t have a
notable impact on water levels.

Over the next several days and weeks as water levels slowly but
gradually continue to decrease, boaters should expect high
water, potentially hidden underwater hazards (including
submerged docks), and strong currents in constricted areas.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...JDS
HYDROLOGY...JDS