780
FXUS63 KDDC 170530
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cooler weather pattern shaping up through early next week,
  with highs 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal averages.

- There are small chances for additional thunderstorms late Wednesday
  and Thursday and better chances Friday afternoon through
  Sunday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Low level, moist upslope flow will strengthen later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance embedded in the westerlies
approaches the high plains. Given weak capping, 2000-3000 j/kg
CAPE and marginally supportive 0-6 km bulk shear, an isolated
supercell or two could form by 5-6 pm across western Kansas. 0-1
km SRH values are low so that tornadoes are not favored aside
from any mesoscale or storm scale influences that could result
in brief tornadogenesis. Very large hail greater than 2" is
possible.

A larger cluster of storms will move into Kansas by 00-01z.
This convection will likely grow upscale quickly given high
dewpoint depressions and DCAPE values from 1100-1500 j/kg, with
damaging wind and small hail being the main concerns. Favored
locations for severe weather in the vicinity this evening
between 6 pm and midnight are along and south of a line from
Syracuse to Sublette to Meade to Englewood.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Moist low level upslope flow will lead to moderate instability
this afternoon. Thunderstorms will develop on the favored
topographic regions of Colorado by late afternoon and then
propagate into western Kansas after 23z. There is a chance given
weak capping that an isolated cell or two will develop ahead of
the line across west central Kansas during the evening. 0-6 km
bulk shear values are marginally supportive of supercells with
very large hail. Storms will congeal into a cluster after 00z
upon entering Kansas and propagate southeastward through extreme
southwest Kansas, possibly as far east as Dodge City. Damaging
winds as high as 70 mph are possible for places like Elkhart,
Liberal, Ulysses and Meade. Locally heavy rain is possible, but
current thinking is that the convective cluster will be fast
moving enough given the westerlies and outflow that flooding
will not be a major concern (aside from isolated pockets).

A cooler regime is forecast through the weekend and into early
next week. There are small to medium chances for thunderstorms
both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons given the northwesterly
flow and weak capping inversion. The best chances for storms is
across far western Kansas where higher amounts of instability
will exist. However, the various ensemble means are not
supportive of widespread heavy wain Wednesday and Thursday, with
less than 10% chances for 24 hr rain exceeding 1" even across
the far southwest. High temperatures will be in the mid and
upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

A series of shortwave troughs will move southward across the
central high plains late Friday through Sunday. Given the
meridional nature of the mid level flow, mid level capping will
continue to be weak so that chances for showers and
thunderstorms are medium to high. The EPS/GEFS and CMCE
ensemble means indicate 20-30% chances for greater than 1" of
rain for central Kansas, with lower probabilities farther west.
Ensemble mean rainfall is about .75" to 1" for the ECMWF and
CMCE and GEFS for the Friday to Sunday period. Expect highs in
the lower to mid 80s Friday through Sunday. The main upper
trough axis will to the south and east by Monday, with surface
high pressure building across the high plains so that rain
chances decrease markedly. Expect high temperatures in the upper
80s early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024


Decaying thunderstorms near the DDC terminal will quickly allow
conditions to improve in the first hour of this TAF, ans TS
ends altogether but patchy areas of -RA continue late as 11z. In
the meantime westerly gusts to 30 knots are still possible as
the rain comes down evaporatively cooling the layers. The
balance of the day will be VFR conditions as the nest chance for
precipitation will be late evening of the 17th, as a marginal
risk for severe weather over eastern Colorado allows storms to
roll into the western counties (to far west to impact GCK or LBL
with severe winds).

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Finch
DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Russell