Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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277 FXUS63 KDDC 132353 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 653 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot and dry weather will persist through Monday, with highs 100 to 108. - Much cooler temperatures are predicted starting Tuesday, along with daily chances for thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 An upper level ridge will remain across the southern Rockies and southern high plains through Monday, with some flattening of the ridge on Monday. The downslope plume and hottest temperatures will sag southward through Monday ahead of the next front. Temperatures will likely reach 104-108 along I-70 and across west central Kansas again Sunday afternoon. Opted to extend the heat advisory southward for today to better match up with neighboring offices Even though heat indices will stay just below 105 today, the next two days will be very hot so that the longevity of the heat warrants some flexibility in thresholds. The air mass will continue to be very dry so that heat indices will continue to be slightly below the actual temperatures. Given the flattening of the ridge Monday and better pre-frontal downslope, temperatures could reach 105-109 across most, if not all, of central and southwest Kansas. Given the dry air, the nights won`t feel all that bad as temperatures fall into the 70-75 range and dewpoints remain low. Upper level ridging will shift westward by Tuesday as an upper level trough progresses southeastward out of Canada into the upper Midwest. This will push a cold front through western Kansas Monday night. As is typical this time of year, much higher low level moisture will advect southward in the wake of the front, with 65-70 dewpoints. Moreover, in summer, the southern extremity of the westerlies is the favored place for thunderstorms with locally heavy rains since this is where fronts stall out and where moisture content is very high. Often the heaviest rains move eastward from the Colorado border during early evening and into central Kansas during the early morning. However, in this upcoming pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday, storms will likely be ongoing at all times of day across varying parts of central and southwest Kansas. At any given point though, rain may not last very long, but could be locally heavy when it does fall given the expected high precipitable water, weak convective outflows and slow storm propagation in the deep moist air mass. That said, ensembles of CMCE, GEFS, ICON and ECMWF show 5-25% or less probability of 24 hr rainfall exceeding 1", with the highest chances depicted by the GEFS. This indicates that any intense rainfall will be spotty. Expect highs in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday all of the thunderstorm clusters over the previous two days will have shunted an effective front well south of Kansas, with heavier rains shifting southward. Surface high pressure will be located over the upper Midwest, ridging southwestward to the southern high plains. More stable conditions will be in place over central Kansas, but weaker capping can be expected over extreme southwest Kansas. Given the meridional mid level flow, any capping inversion will be weak across the southwesternmost counties of Kansas. Thus, despite the cooler temperatures, isolated to scattered t-storms can`t be ruled out Thursday and Friday for places like Ulysses and Elkhart. By Saturday, a shortwave trough will progress southward along the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge and approach western Kansas. Instability will be limited but moisture will be abundant and mid level capping very weak. Thus, shower activity will likely return Friday night and persist through Saturday, especially from Dodge City and Ness City westward. The weekend rains will probably not be as heavy as those of early week and the various 1" exceedance probabilities from the various ensemble means are still low (between 5 and 20%). However, despite the ensembles showing only minor chances for intense rainfall at any one location, the chances for at least some beneficial rains are high, with the 7-day mean precipitation from the GEFS and ECMWF EPS from Tuesday through Monday of 1 to 1.5", along with 50-60% chances of 1" or greater rains over this period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 650 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals through the TAF period. Very isolated thunderstorms along a boundary in far west Kansas may impact GCK, but should remain at VFR. Winds will be from the south, weakening into the night. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for KSZ030-031- 043>046-061>066-079-081-090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...KBJ