645
FXUS63 KDDC 140848
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
348 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot and dry weather will persist through Monday, with
  highs 100 to 108.

- Much cooler temperatures are predicted starting Tuesday, along
  with daily chances for thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024


A marked increase in surface dew points from 24 hours ago will
begin contributing to higher heat risk going forward especially
overnight and into Monday, in the eastern sections of the
forecast area (Red Hills and Hays axis). Heat indices are not
likely to reach or exceed the 105 degree mark everywhere this
afternoon however a couple of different regimes here - a large
area has about a 40-80 percent chance for meeting heat advisory
criteria in the direr air of the west (Ulysses, Scott City,
Garden City and westward) on just Temperatures alone despite
suboptimal dewpoints. Counties in the southern forecast area
will be added to the heat advisory in collaboration with Texas
and Oklahoma areas. Tuesday and Tuesday night will see some
relief from the hotter temperatures as chances for storms for
our region of Kansas increase incrementally each day (20-30%
north of a Liberal to Larned Line Monday night), ramping to 40
to 70%, southeast to northwest respectively on Tuesday night.
These precipitation odds fit well with cluster analysis
favoring the [day 4] 24 hr QPF clusters 2,3 and 4, which may
explain the operational models, especially the (wettest) GFS
which accounts for 43% of clusters 3 and 4s members.

The push of modified northern Plains air and convection each
night will put the brakes on the very hot air from returning, as
the ensemble 500 mb patterns continue the plan a westward
retrograding thermal axis, into the western 1/3 of the country
through at least about 192 hours. Typically this pattern
produces a setup for daily isolated convection up to MCS
activity spreading from the eastern Colorado high terrain into
western Kansas, with unique daily forecast challenges on the
eastern extent of the storms based on downstream environments
(lapse rates/MCS maintenance parameter) and available
convective cold pools. EC/GFS ensemble mean 2 meter temperatures
multiple run trend maintain 80s for highs and 60s for lows
areawide through the end of the week before the 90s become more
favorable in the ensemble members again by weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A VFR forecast is in store here for the foreseeable TAF period.
Aviation related risks like ceilings and thunderstorm gusts, etc
are going to be focused well north of the region in Nebraska
Tonight. As the leading edge of some thunderstorms outflow air
moved into northern Kansas after 12z, that region north of HYS
will be monitored for any restrictions potentially developing in
a cooler and moist boundary layer, but probabilistic ensemble
output shows that potential limited to the NE/KS state line.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for KSZ030-031-
043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell