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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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852 FXUS65 KCYS 151136 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 536 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather concerns begin to increase Friday as well as Saturday with warmer temperatures and low afternoon humidity. - Seasonable temperatures will continue through the period. Showers and thunderstorms will be most likely on Sunday and Monday, with less coverage for Tuesday and Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 211 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Cold front that was over the CWA yesterday has pushed well south into southern Colorado this morning. A 1025mb surface high over northwestern Wyoming giving us breezy west to northwest winds and morning temperatures in the low 50s across southeast Wyoming and even some 40s out near Saratoga. Warmest temperatures in the Panhandle and the Platte River Valley...where 60s are still being reported. A much drier day expected today as PWATS continue to fall. Still a chance for showers and storms however. RAP and HRRR simulated radar showing showers developing across the Laramie Range and points west for this afternoon that continue into the evening hours. Greatest coverage will be near the Colorado stateline and along the I-80 corridor. Areas north of Interstate 80 look to remain dry east of the Laramie Range. Becoming concerned for Friday as the upper ridge builds into the CWA. 700mb temperatures quite warm Friday with +16 to +18C over Carbon and Albany Counties. With temperatures in the mid 80s...afternoon humidity expected to fall quite low. GFS 700/750mb winds up near 25-30kts that will mix down with these warmer temperatures. Decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch for Friday. Day shift can decide on whether to upgrade after possibly some coordination with responsible fuels personnel. Saturday will be another dry and breezy day for much of the CWA. May need fire weather headlines for Saturday as well. GFS 700mb winds even stronger and more widespread Saturday. afternoon. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 211 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Saturday night/Sunday...Despite ridging aloft developing, we will see an increase in atmospheric moisture content with precipitable water values increasing to 0.6 to 1.8 inches. Thus, we expect an increase in scattered late day showers and thunderstorms, most numerous from the Snowy Range to far southeast Wyoming. Monday/Tuesday...Atmospheric moisture content remains about the same for Monday, with a decrease on Tuesday. Despite ridging aloft, we still anticipate scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms on Monday, most numerous near the Colorado state line, with a decrease in coverage for Tuesday. Maximum temperatures will remain about the same each day. Wednesday...Although ridging aloft continues, precipitable water values remain nearly the same as Tuesday, ranging from 0.5 to 1.2 inches. Thus, it looks like widely scattered to scattered late day showers and thunderstorms again, most numerous near the Colorado state line. 700 mb temperatures remain near 19 Celsius, yielding maximum temperatures from the mid 80s to mid 90s. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 533 AM MDT Thu Aug 15 2024 A ridge aloft will move over central Wyoming today and over eastern Wyoming tonight. Skies will remain mostly clear. Winds will gust to 22 knots until 00Z at Cheyenne, and to 20 knots at the other terminals from 16Z to 00Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for WYZ420>423-425-427-428. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...GCC LONG TERM...RUBIN AVIATION...RUBIN