761
FXUS64 KCRP 111122
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major heat risk today and tomorrow

GOES Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery this morning reveals
some low level stratus and patchy fog developing across the
Coastal Plains. Any fog that develops will clear out shortly after
sunrise. The upper level ridge will remain in place as we wrap up
the weekend. This will promote generally rain-free conditions.
However, there is a plume of slightly deeper moisture draped
across the Southern Coastal Plains. Some of the CAMs hint at some
isolated activity developing along the sea breeze this afternoon
so have included a ~15% chance for showers and storms. Forecast
soundings depict an unstable environment with very little wind
shear. Any storms that develop should be short-lived.

By Monday, the ridge begins to retreat slightly west, leaving a
weakness aloft over the region. This will allow for an upper level
low/inverted trough to approach the region early next week.
Meanwhile, a weak surface low in Bay of Campeche will drift north
towards the NE Mexico Gulf coast. This low will tug a swath of
deep moisture towards the Texas coast. As a result, have
maintained a near 20% chance of showers and storms on Monday,
mainly focused on the seabreeze.

High temps both today and tomorrow will range from the low 90s
along the coast to around 105 out west. With slightly less
moisture in place for much of the region, we look to stay below
Heat Advisory criteria. With that said, a few locations across the
Southern Coastal Bend may briefly reach 110 but only for an hour
or two.

Similar to yesterday, we will hold onto a low risk of rip currents
as winds remain around 10 knots. Gerling-Hanson plots show a
secondary wave system around 8-9s so we will need to monitor
observations for a potential bump up to moderate through the day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

- Low to medium chances for showers and storms on Tuesday
- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through the week.

We open up the long term with an upper low/inverted trough
approaching the Middle Texas coast. Some of the latest guidance
suggest this low will move inland south of the region with a
ribbon of H5 vorticity wrapping around the north side of the low.
With sufficient moisture in place, we will likely see an uptick in
convection and potentially some enhanced activity along the
seabreeze. Our upper level support will move north and west of the
region by the middle of the work week. Enough moisture will be
left lingering across the region to allow for low chances of
convection along the daily seabreeze through the end of the work
week.

Looking at our temps, we will continue to see highs in the low 90s
along the coast to around 105 out west. Heat indices will range
from 108-114 at times with the greatest concern across the
Coastal Bend. This will lead to a moderate to major heat-risk
through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

MVFR conditions have developed at ALI/VCT this morning but should
only linger for another hour or two. VFR then prevails through the
day across all terminals. Included a mention of VCSH at ALI/CRP as
some isolated showers may develop with an axis of deeper moisture.
Otherwise, southeasterly winds will increase through the day with
gusts around 20 knots possible. MVFR conditions may return late
tonight at ALI/VCT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Aug 11 2024

A weak to moderate south-southeasterly flow will persist through
next week. We will have low to medium chance for showers and
thunderstorms daily through the week. The greatest chances come on
Monday and Tuesday as an upper level disturbances passes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  79  95  80 /  10   0  10   0
Victoria          96  76  96  78 /  10   0  20   0
Laredo           101  78 102  79 /  10  10  10   0
Alice             98  76  98  78 /  20   0  20   0
Rockport          94  81  94  82 /  10   0  10   0
Cotulla          103  78 103  79 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        96  79  97  79 /  20   0  20   0
Navy Corpus       91  82  91  83 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...TC/95