Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
671 FXUS64 KCRP 282303 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 603 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 - Medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms return east Sunday and Monday - Rain chances decrease to a low (15-30%) chance Tuesday through Thursday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 A few showers around the area this afternoon with PWAT levels between 1.75 and 2 inches. This will hopefully be just the appetizer to some better rain chances Sunday and Monday as a good plume of deep tropical moisture pushes into the coast. The minor concern I have is if something were to get organized in the Bay of Campeche and keep the bulk of the moisture south. At this time will continue to assume only weak organization if anything, and for it to not rob too much of our moisture. With that, expect a more active convective picture tomorrow beginning by day-break along the coast and then spreading inland. Don`t really have a good surface feature to keep things organized, but the sea breeze should help into the early afternoon. With PWAT values above 2 inches, the showers and storms that do develop should be efficient rain producers and could bring a quarter inch in some downpours. Overall, this moisture is expected to persist through Thursday with PWAT values at times approaching 2.25". Again, other than the seabreeze, there`s not much to drive anything substantial, so not looking at a widespread heavy rain event. Some locations especially near the coast could top an inch though over the next 5 days. Drier conditions are expected Friday into the weekend. The increased moisture will help to keep temperatures in check through the week with near or even slightly below normal temperatures through Thursday. By Friday we`ll see an uptick in temps, but nothing out of the ordinary for summer in South Texas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 559 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF cycle, however, there will be a low to medium chance for MVFR conditions from tonight through the end of the TAF cycle. Low ceilings will be the main culprit late tonight as the focus shifts to thunderstorms tomorrow morning and afternoon. Best chances for showers and thunderstorms appear to be from 13-20z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) flow is expected through mid-week next week. Medium to High (50-70%) rain chances are expected Sunday and Monday with rain chances decreasing to medium chances (30-50%) Tuesday through Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 90 77 91 / 10 50 20 50 Victoria 75 89 75 90 / 10 60 10 50 Laredo 76 97 75 94 / 0 20 10 40 Alice 74 92 73 91 / 0 50 20 50 Rockport 80 89 80 89 / 20 60 30 50 Cotulla 77 98 77 96 / 0 20 10 40 Kingsville 75 90 74 89 / 10 50 20 60 Navy Corpus 80 88 80 88 / 20 60 30 60 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...JCP/84