272
FXUS64 KCRP 210758
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
258 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts today and Monday

- A marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall and
  flash flooding Monday from La Salle County to Calhoun County

Moisture remains above normal for this time of the year, near the
75th percentile with PWATs around 2.0". Medium to high rain chances
over the waters this morning as 850-500mb PVA remains focused over
the northwest Gulf. A low to medium chance of 20-40% remains over
the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains through the afternoon as the
seabreeze pushes through. High temperatures will range from the low
90s along the coast to around 100 over the Rio Grande Plains with
heat index values generally between 105-109 but a few locations over
the southern Coastal Bend may briefly touch 110.

Loss of daytime heating will quickly diminish any lingering
convection and rain chances Sunday night as the environment
stabilizes, leading to partly cloudy skies and low temperatures from
the mid to upper 70s.

A weak frontal boundary will push southward through the Hill Country
Monday, washing out before reaching South Texas. This boundary will
allow for moisture to pool and increase low-level convergence,
therefore rain chances increase to medium from 40-60% across the
region. Rain chances will be greatest along our northern counties
stretching from La Salle to Calhoun, resulting in a marginal (level
1 out of 4) risk of excessive rainfall. The increase in rain and
cloud cover Monday will drop high temperatures a couple degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Key Messages:

- Increasing moisture will lead to higher rain chances next week.

- Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding Monday night
  and Thursday.

- Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

The long-term period appears to be predominately wet for South Texas
as a deepening upper-level trough extends southwestward across the
region. This atmospheric feature, combined with plentiful moisture
from the Gulf (evidenced by model PWATs consistently above 2.0
inches, peaking around 2.4-2.5 inches) will create conducive
conditions for rain and thunderstorms. The moderately unstable
atmosphere, characterized by SBCAPE values ranging from 1,000-2,500
J/kg, and the presence of several mid-level shortwaves providing
positive vorticity advection, will further enhance the likelihood of
precipitation.

Over the next seven days, rainfall totals are anticipated to range
between 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. The
highest PoPs are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, reaching 60-90%
across much of the area, particularly in the northern and eastern
portions of the CWA.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk
(level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall from Monday night through
Tuesday morning. Additionally, from Tuesday through Thursday
morning, the WPC has also maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 out of
4) for excessive rainfall before lowering to a Marginal Risk again
Thursday morning.

On a positive note, the increased cloud cover and rainy weather will
usher in cooler temperatures. Highs will reach the low 80s to low
90s for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Brief MVFR visibility will be possible for ALI and VCT, so a TEMPO
is included from 09Z to 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2024

Weak to occasionally moderate south to southeasterly flow will
persist through next weekend. The combination of elevated
moisture, surface troughs, and a series of mid-level disturbances
will allow for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with
the highest chances expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  79  93  79 /  30  10  40  20
Victoria          92  76  91  75 /  40  10  60  40
Laredo            99  78  99  77 /  10  10  30  20
Alice             97  76  96  76 /  30  10  40  20
Rockport          93  80  92  79 /  40  20  40  30
Cotulla          101  78  98  77 /  10  20  40  30
Kingsville        95  77  95  77 /  30  10  40  10
Navy Corpus       90  81  91  80 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....KRS/98
AVIATION...LS