216
FXUS64 KCRP 181749
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1249 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Water vapor imagery this morning reveals the upper ridge retreating
west as a trough begins to dig across the Midwest. MSAS analysis
depicts a weak cold front well to our north. This boundary will
gradually sag south through the day but will remain north of the
region. Moisture will increase through the day ahead of the front.
The 00Z KCRP sounding recorded a 1.61" PWATs. This is expected to
climb to around 2" this afternoon. As a result, we will see a
20-30% chance of showers and storms, generally across the Victoria
Crossroads and Northern Coastal Plains, this afternoon. The
latest CAMS bring a line of storms into the area through the day
as the front moves south. Additional activity is also possible
along any lingering outflow boundaries that kick out this
afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings hint at CAPE values
around 4000 J/kg, DCAPE around 1000 J/kg but minimal shear.
Therefore, any storms that do develop will likely be short lived.
The majority of activity will wane with the loss of daytime
heating but we will need to keep an eye out for outflows
overnight.

More of the same is expected on Friday. Moisture will remain
elevated as a shortwave rotates around the southern periphery of the
trough. It`s possible we see a bit more coverage across our
northeastern counties as the front dips a bit further south but
there is still not too much confidence in it making it all the way
here.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will settle into the low 90s to
around 100 degrees. Heat indices will climb into the 105-109 range
daily with a few spots hitting 110 but not for long enough to
warrant a Heat Advisory at this time. As a result, South Texas will
have a moderate risk for heat-related impacts as we close out the
work week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts persist through
next work week

- Well above normal moisture leads to medium to high rain chances
(50-70%) Monday through Wednesday

Again, not much change with the previous long term forecast package
as an unsettled weather pattern develops. A mid to upper level
trough over the Midwest this weekend will push further southward
into the southern Great Plains early next week and persist through
the middle of next week. Kept low to medium rain chances during the
day Saturday and Sunday as near normal moisture interacts with the
sea breeze and outflows while under a high CAPE and low CINH
environment. A weak cold front is forecast to wash out as it
approaches South Texas Tuesday, leading to pooling of moisture
extending PWAT values to 90-99th percentile (~2.5"). In addition to
this significant moisture, a stout inverted surface trough will
combine with mid-level shortwave disturbances to warrant medium to
high rain chances (50-70%) Monday through Thursday. Mean total QPF
through Wednesday is around 1.5-2" with a 10% chance of exceeding
4". These values will likely change as short-range ensemble guidance
becomes applicable.

Although high temperatures will lower a few degrees from a range of
90-100 Saturday through Monday to a range of 85-95 the middle of
next week due to increasing rain and sky cover, minor to moderate
heat-related impacts will persist with max heat index values around
105.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

High pressure over South Texas will continue the weak flow over
the region. Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads TAFs (ALI,CRP,
and VCT) are expected to be VFR through 09z, then there is a 30%
chance for CIGS under 3000 ft and a 20% chance of VSBYs under 5
miles at ALI, which lasts to around 13z. CRP and VCT are not
expected to have any restrictions. COT and LRD are expected to
have 24 hours without any restrictions.

Convection is possible near VCT later this afternoon, and again
near 12z as another wave moves through.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A generally weak onshore flow will continue as we close out the
work week. Winds may become variable at times as a boundary stalls
to our north. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible both today and tomorrow. Weak to occasionally
moderate south to southeasterly flow will develop this weekend and
persist through the middle of next week. Low to medium rain
chances of 20 to 50 percent this weekend will increase to medium
to high chances of 50 to 70 percent heading into the middle of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  95  77  94 /  10  20  10  10
Victoria          75  93  74  93 /  40  40  20  40
Laredo            78  99  78 100 /   0  20   0  10
Alice             76  98  75  98 /  10  20   0  20
Rockport          79  93  79  93 /  20  30  10  20
Cotulla           79 100  77 100 /  10  20   0  10
Kingsville        77  96  76  95 /  10  20   0  10
Navy Corpus       80  90  80  90 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TC
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...JSL/86