368
FXUS64 KCRP 140817
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
317 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Deep moisture is on the decline through the area with PWAT values
on the Saturday evening of 2.04 and expected to be lower this
morning. This, along with building high pressure will result in a
mainly dry and quiet short term period. We do have a slight
chance for showers in the Victoria Crossroads today though as one
last bit of vorticity shifts through north of the building ridge.

Temperatures return to seasonal levels with lows in 90s across
South Texas. Continued high dewpoints will result in heat indices
generally between 105 and 109. A few locations could top 110, but
should be brief and isolated and will not issue a heat advy at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Generally a minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts for the
upcoming week.

- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the
week and into next weekend.

The forecast for the upcoming week still looks fairly dry Tuesday
and Wednesday with increasing rain chances the latter part of the
week and into the weekend.

Mid/upper level high pressure is progged to remain situated across
the northern Gulf of Mexico with another high pressure over the
Desert Southwest with a weakness in between the two that stretches
across Mexico into W and S TX. Despite the weakness aloft, moisture
will be somewhat limited, thus the low (<10%) chance of convection
on Tuesday. A little deeper moisture is progged across the Victoria
Crossroads by Wednesday with PWATs around 2 inches, leading to a low
to medium (20-30%) chance of convection.

Models indicate a deepening low pressure system across the northern
plains that will stretch southward and merge with the low over
Mexico through Thursday and Friday providing better upper support
and bringing higher rain chances to S TX. This upper level system is
forecast to bring a cold front into east TX by Thursday. This would
provide stronger low level moisture convergence across the
northeastern CWA by Friday. Deeper moisture is also forecast to be
in place across S TX with PWATs of 2.0-2.2 inches. These features
combined with an unstable airmass leads to a medium (30-50%) across
the Victoria Crossroads and a low chance (20%) across the remainder
of S TX on Friday.

The cold front is not expected to make it through S TX, but could
stall just north of the CWA. There is the potential that any
convection that develops across Central and East TX along the
stalled front, could produce an outflow boundary that could make it
through S TX with convection firing along the outflow boundary, thus
mimicking the actual cold front. Regardless, it would likely washout
quickly with winds returning to an onshore flow. Rain chances are
expected to continue into the weekend.

As for temperatures, overall are expected to be near normal through
the extended. Highs are forecast to be in the lower 90s along the
inland coastal areas to around 100 across the Rio Grande Plains
Tuesday through Thursday, then a couple of degrees cooler through
the weekend. Humid conditions combined with these higher
temperatures will lead to heat indices of 105 to 109. A few
locations across the Coastal Bend and Brush Country could briefly
see heat indices of 110-113.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Expecting VFR conditions tonight. MVFR VSBY`s for ALI/VCT due to
fog in the morning hours around sunrise, then VFR for the
remainder of the TAF period across all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected for the upcoming
week along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms the
latter half of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  78  93  77 /  10   0   0   0
Victoria          93  75  93  75 /  20  10  10   0
Laredo            97  76  97  77 /   0  10   0   0
Alice             96  75  97  75 /  10   0   0   0
Rockport          93  79  92  81 /  10   0   0   0
Cotulla           98  76  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  76  94  76 /  10   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       91  79  90  82 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...BF