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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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557 FXUS61 KCLE 140449 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1249 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure persist through Thursday before a low pressure system over the western Great Lakes moves a warm front north on Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday. This low pressure system will continue to influence the region through the weekend as it slowly drifts east. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 12:30 AM Update... The forecast remains on track overnight with no changes needed as high pressure continues to strengthen overhead. 9:36 PM EDT Update... Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. No changes appeared necessary. Previous Discussion... A broad upper level trough will linger through this period, but with a dominating surface high over the region keeping conditions dry, generally no precipitation is expected through Wednesday night. The caveat is this afternoon through early evening, when some places may see isolated light showers along a surface trough axis attendant to a shortwave trough that will sweep SE`ward through our CWA through this early evening. However, we do not expect widespread or impactful rainfall, and all showers should cease by nightfall. There is a small chance of patchy fog developing overnight tonight as models suggest a strong low level inversion developing. However, given the limited moisture overall, will need to continue to monitor this potential so opted to keep it out of the forecast at this point. Pleasant temperatures with limited humidity are expected to continue through the period with Wednesday highs climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows both nights dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Another swing in the upper level pattern forthcoming as ridging gives way to a closed low moving in from the upper midwest region into the Great Lakes. POPs return in earnest to the forecast Thursday night with the arrival of a warm front into the CWA followed by a cold front late Friday into Friday night. Low pressure system at the surface will likely be occluding by this point, and the forward speed of it will be subject to slowing. Should see thunderstorms with this system, and will not five deep into any severe potential, but models showing in increase in low level winds in the wake of the warm front heading into the Friday time frame. Temperatures ahead of the frontal system continue a gradual overall uptick with some mid 80s possible Thursday and Friday, highlighting the warmest period of the 7 day forecast. POPs drop behind the cold front towards 12Z Saturday. WPC excessive rainfall category in the marginal for Thursday night through Friday night for now, but will leave out of the HWO with this package. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cold pool over the Great Lakes helps increase the low/mid level lapse rates for more convection to fire, and a surface trough or two swinging through will assist with any other necessary forcing. POPs on the increase for Saturday, partially diurnally driven. The same occurs Sunday and even into Monday with the low pressure system finally making an exit to the northeast. Lingering surface trough oriented along the long axis of Lake Erie along with onshore flow keeps rain chances on the high side, again, partially diurnally driven in this period. Temperatures a bit below normal for the eastern half of the CWA, closer to normal for the western half, but still likely not quite there. && .AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Widespread VFR expected through 00Z/Thurs. Simultaneously, NW`erly flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our region. Isolated and periodic upper-level cloudiness will accompany these disturbances. At the surface, a ridge remains centered near Lower MI and Lake Huron, and continues to affect northern OH and NW PA. Our regional surface winds trend around 5 knots in magnitude and variable in direction through the TAF period. However, the ongoing lake breeze over/within several miles of Lake Erie is expected to dissipate by ~00Z/Wed. A land breeze is expected to occur over/within several miles of the lake between ~04Z and ~13Z/Wed, and another lake breeze is expected over/within several miles of Lake Erie between ~16Z/Wed and ~00Z/Thurs. KCLE and KERI will be impacted by the lake breeze and land breeze. Note: Ongoing and very isolated rain showers in NW OH, associated with one of the aforementioned disturbances, are expected to dissipate by 00Z/Wed. Nocturnal cooling may allow patchy mist with MVFR to form between ~08Z and ~12Z/Wed in interior NE OH and NW PA. This includes KCAK and KYNG. Outlook...Periods of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible Thursday afternoon through Sunday. && .MARINE... Light and variable winds through Thursday night that could be weakly onshore at times, but expecting wave heights until then to be less than a foot. Strong southerly flow Friday 10-15kts brings wave heights to 2ft at 5NM, but calm in the immediate shore areas. Cold front comes through late Friday into Friday night with winds turning westerly Saturday 10-15kts and waves 2-3ft, becoming northwesterly 10-15kts Sunday through Monday and wave heights 2-4ft. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell/Garuckas/Jaszka SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Jaszka MARINE...26