557
FXUS61 KCLE 140449
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1249 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure persist through Thursday before a low pressure
system over the western Great Lakes moves a warm front north on
Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday. This low pressure
system will continue to influence the region through the weekend
as it slowly drifts east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:30 AM Update...

The forecast remains on track overnight with no changes needed
as high pressure continues to strengthen overhead.

9:36 PM EDT Update...

Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model
guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion...

A broad upper level trough will linger through this period, but
with a dominating surface high over the region keeping
conditions dry, generally no precipitation is expected through
Wednesday night. The caveat is this afternoon through early
evening, when some places may see isolated light showers along a
surface trough axis attendant to a shortwave trough that will
sweep SE`ward through our CWA through this early evening.
However, we do not expect widespread or impactful rainfall, and
all showers should cease by nightfall. There is a small chance
of patchy fog developing overnight tonight as models suggest a
strong low level inversion developing. However, given the
limited moisture overall, will need to continue to monitor this
potential so opted to keep it out of the forecast at this point.


Pleasant temperatures with limited humidity are expected to
continue through the period with Wednesday highs climbing into
the upper 70s to low 80s with overnight lows both nights
dropping into the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Another swing in the upper level pattern forthcoming as ridging
gives way to a closed low moving in from the upper midwest region
into the Great Lakes. POPs return in earnest to the forecast
Thursday night with the arrival of a warm front into the CWA
followed by a cold front late Friday into Friday night. Low pressure
system at the surface will likely be occluding by this point, and
the forward speed of it will be subject to slowing. Should see
thunderstorms with this system, and will not five deep into any
severe potential, but models showing in increase in low level winds
in the wake of the warm front heading into the Friday time frame.
Temperatures ahead of the frontal system continue a gradual overall
uptick with some mid 80s possible Thursday and Friday, highlighting
the warmest period of the 7 day forecast. POPs drop behind the cold
front towards 12Z Saturday. WPC excessive rainfall category in the
marginal for Thursday night through Friday night for now, but will
leave out of the HWO with this package.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cold pool over the Great Lakes helps increase the low/mid level
lapse rates for more convection to fire, and a surface trough or two
swinging through will assist with any other necessary forcing. POPs
on the increase for Saturday, partially diurnally driven. The same
occurs Sunday  and even into Monday with the low pressure system
finally making an exit to the northeast. Lingering surface trough
oriented along the long axis of Lake Erie along with onshore flow
keeps rain chances on the high side, again, partially diurnally
driven in this period. Temperatures a bit below normal for the
eastern half of the CWA, closer to normal for the western half, but
still likely not quite there.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Widespread VFR expected through 00Z/Thurs. Simultaneously, NW`erly
flow aloft and embedded disturbances affect our region. Isolated
and periodic upper-level cloudiness will accompany these
disturbances. At the surface, a ridge remains centered near
Lower MI and Lake Huron, and continues to affect northern OH and
NW PA. Our regional surface winds trend around 5 knots in
magnitude and variable in direction through the TAF period.
However, the ongoing lake breeze over/within several miles of
Lake Erie is expected to dissipate by ~00Z/Wed. A land breeze is
expected to occur over/within several miles of the lake between
~04Z and ~13Z/Wed, and another lake breeze is expected
over/within several miles of Lake Erie between ~16Z/Wed and
~00Z/Thurs. KCLE and KERI will be impacted by the lake breeze
and land breeze.

Note: Ongoing and very isolated rain showers in NW OH,
associated with one of the aforementioned disturbances, are
expected to dissipate by 00Z/Wed. Nocturnal cooling may allow
patchy mist with MVFR to form between ~08Z and ~12Z/Wed in
interior NE OH and NW PA. This includes KCAK and KYNG.

Outlook...Periods of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
with non-VFR are possible Thursday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light and variable winds through Thursday night that could be
weakly onshore at times, but expecting wave heights until then
to be less than a foot. Strong southerly flow Friday 10-15kts
brings wave heights to 2ft at 5NM, but calm in the immediate
shore areas. Cold front comes through late Friday into Friday
night with winds turning westerly Saturday 10-15kts and waves
2-3ft, becoming northwesterly 10-15kts Sunday through Monday
and wave heights 2-4ft.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell/Garuckas/Jaszka
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...26