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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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006 FXUS61 KCLE 140813 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 413 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain over the southern Great Lakes today before gradually moving east tonight and Thursday to allow low pressure to move into the Great Lakes by Friday. This low will lift a warm front across the region Thursday night and Friday followed by a cold front Saturday. The low will continue to meander across the Great Lakes through Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Very quiet weather will continue through the near term as a large area of strong surface high pressure remains in control. Skies are clear early this morning with water vapor loops showing abundant amounts of dry air across the region owing to the surface high and broad mid/upper troughing across the Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. This pattern will move very little through the day today as the surface high remains centered over southern Ontario, so expect mostly sunny skies and pleasant temperatures and humidity levels under light N to NE winds. By tonight and Thursday, the mid/upper trough axis will slowly shift into New England with the surface high drifting east to be elongated from the eastern Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic by late Thursday. This is in response to a mid/upper shortwave trough crossing the northern and central Plains and closing off as it becomes stacked with the associated surface low by the time is reaches the Upper Midwest late Thursday. Clouds will increase from west to east Thursday afternoon as warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent develops in the mid-levels ahead of the warm front. This could support a few showers in NW Ohio Thursday evening, but low-level moisture will be slow to increase given the very dry air at the onset (dew points mostly stay in the 50s Thursday), so most areas will stay dry until Thursday night. Highs today will range from the upper 70s/low 80s in NE Ohio and NW PA to the low 80s in NW and north central Ohio, warming into the low/mid 80s areawide Thursday. Parts of NE Ohio could see upper 80s Thursday given more sunshine expected, but again, dew points will remain tolerable. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 50s/low 60s, with some mid 50s in interior NW PA. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... The quiet weather pattern will come to an end Thursday night with unsettled weather continuing into the weekend as a low pressure system deepens over the Upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes and meanders east through the long term period. The low will lift a warm front northeast towards the CWA Thursday night into Friday with a cold front slowly crossing the area Friday night into Saturday. Precipitation chances increase from the west ahead of the warm front Thursday night into Friday with widespread showers and expected during the day Friday. The air mass will be quite humid with dew points climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s and PWAT values approaching 1.5 to 2 inches within the warm sector Friday afternoon and evening. Storm motion will likely be progressive, but moist antecedent conditions in conjunction with the potential for heavy rainfall rates will result in a flooding risk areawide. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (issued by WPC) remains in place early Friday morning (prior to 12Z) through Friday. There`s less confidence in the potential for strong to severe weather Friday. There`s still a bit of uncertainty in the timing of precipitation early Friday and placement of the warm front during peak diurnal heating Friday, as well as timing for the best upper level forcing. There will likely be widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday morning which could stabilize the atmosphere and prevent stronger storms from developing Friday afternoon and evening. If the atmosphere does manage to recover/destabilize, there could be enough moisture/buoyancy and shear for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary threats. Showers and thunderstorms will progress east into NE OH and NW PA Friday night into Saturday as the system`s upper low/trough drift into the region and the surface cold front sweeps across the CWA. There should be a brief period of lower precipitation chances behind the front with only a chance (30-50%) of showers across NE OH and NW PA Saturday night. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s Friday before temps cool a few degrees for the daytime hours Saturday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s each night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Weakening surface low with a trough aloft will crawl east across the eastern Great Lakes for the majority of the long term period, allowing several shortwaves to pivot across the CWA Sunday through early next week. Scattered and periodic shower and afternoon thunderstorm chances continue during this time with the highest PoPs confined to peak diurnal heating. 850mb moisture may begin to dwindle Monday into Tuesday, so generally expect a downward trend in precipitation coverage and chances as the period progresses, especially in NW OH where the forecast may end up being dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal in NE OH/NW PA, although locations in NW OH may experience warmer (but still slightly below normal) temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... VFR is expected to continue through the TAF cycle as high pressure remains in control. Mist could briefly reduce visibility at KCAK and KYNG early this morning, but confidence has lowered, so removed the TEMPO groups. Light and variable winds early this morning will become N to NE at 3 to 7 knots this afternoon. Outlook...Periods of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible Thursday afternoon through Sunday. && .MARINE... Light and variable winds are expected today, although there may be a period of onshore winds to about 10 knots behind the lake breeze this afternoon. Southeast winds under 10 knots develop tonight into Thursday before winds gradually increase to 10 to 20 knots ahead of an approaching warm front late Thursday into Friday. Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots are anticipated Friday night through Saturday which may require marine/beach hazard headlines if forecast winds and waves trend higher. Winds shift to the northwest behind a cold front and diminish (slightly) to 10 to 15 knots Saturday night and Sunday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Garuckas NEAR TERM...Garuckas SHORT TERM...Maines LONG TERM...Maines AVIATION...Garuckas MARINE...Maines