539
FXUS61 KCLE 141935
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
335 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will begin to drift east of the area tonight,
departing off the East Coast Thursday night. A low pressure system
will move east across the Great Lakes region on Friday and persist
through the weekend. This system will move a warm front north on
Friday followed by a cold front on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather will persist for much of the near term period as
high pressure slowly drifts east across the region. Conditions
will remain dry through Thursday afternoon with overnight lows
falling into the upper 50s to low 60s and Thursday highs
climbing into the low 80s. On Thursday, moisture will begin to
increase across the CWA as winds on the back end of the
departing high gain a southerly component. The increased
moisture will result in more humid conditions, especially across
northwest Ohio, although it will not impact apparent
temperatures much. By late Thursday evening, a shortwave trough
will move a mid-level vort max and a LLJ will push across the
area, providing enough energy for showers to begin to develop
across the western counties Thursday night. Isolated thunder may
be possible, however given the limited instability overnight
not expecting anything widespread. The more notable and
impactful weather will occur beginning in the short term period,
but it is important to note that near 12Z Friday, models do
suggest a convective line just to the west of the area, so any
changes in timing may shift this concern into late Thursday
night (before 12Z). Will need to continue to monitor the timing
as that continues to be the more uncertain aspect of this
system. Overnight lows on Thursday night will drop into the mid
to upper 60s, which is a bit warmer compared to recent lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday/warm sector environment likely the most apt to have a
storm/water threat with the low pressure system that will have some
degree of affect on the CWA for at least a few days. Will see a
slight increase in the low level flow Friday with pockets of 850mb
winds coming in from the southwest and increasing low/mid level
lapse rates peaking in the western zones with the dynamic cooling
aloft. Currently in a marginal risk for both severe and excessive
rainfall which will probably be maximized as the cold front
approaches from the west for the Friday night period. In the wake of
the cold front, largely after 12Z Saturday, weather will be dictated
by the upper level low and small areas of PVA rotating through the
cyclonic flow aloft, a lingering surface trough over Lake Erie, and
even some diurnal heating components in the cold pool now over the
region. In the end, expecting high POPs needed for Saturday,
decreasing Saturday night with the lack of heating.

Temperatures upper 70s to mid 80s Friday, then cooler Saturday
behind the cold front with lower 70s to near 80 Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday begins where the short term forecast period ends with the
same setup of peaking POPs Sunday and Monday during the
afternoon/evening while the upper low surface trough make a slow
exit from the area. High pressure finally settles into the Great
Lakes after Monday, drying out the end of the long term.
Temperatures roughly 75-80F through the long term, slightly below
normal for the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Widespread quiet, VFR conditions will persist through this TAF
period as high pressure remains dominant over the region. A
scattered cu field has developed this afternoon, but will
diminish as the air stabilizes after sunset. Winds will remain
light and variable through the period, with the exception of
KERI and KCLE that will continue to be impacted by a lake breeze
of 5-10 knots this afternoon. After sunset, these terminals will
have winds return to light and variable.

Outlook...Periods of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms
with non-VFR are possible Thursday night through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Off shore winds become easterly Thursday into Thursday night ahead
of a warm front with western basin waves 1-2ft. Winds then become
southerly Friday 10-20kts Friday with wave heights increasing to 2ft
around 5NM away from shore. Cold front comes through Friday night
with winds becoming west southwesterly Saturday, and then
northwesterly Sunday. Wave heights continue to be on the increase
during the Saturday to Sunday period in more onshore conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Campbell
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Campbell
MARINE...26