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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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978 FXUS61 KCLE 142309 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 709 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will begin to drift east of the area tonight, departing off the East Coast Thursday night. A low pressure system will move east across the Great Lakes region on Friday and persist through the weekend. This system will move a warm front north on Friday followed by a cold front on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Quiet weather will persist for much of the near term period as high pressure slowly drifts east across the region. Conditions will remain dry through Thursday afternoon with overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to low 60s and Thursday highs climbing into the low 80s. On Thursday, moisture will begin to increase across the CWA as winds on the back end of the departing high gain a southerly component. The increased moisture will result in more humid conditions, especially across northwest Ohio, although it will not impact apparent temperatures much. By late Thursday evening, a shortwave trough will move a mid-level vort max and a LLJ will push across the area, providing enough energy for showers to begin to develop across the western counties Thursday night. Isolated thunder may be possible, however given the limited instability overnight not expecting anything widespread. The more notable and impactful weather will occur beginning in the short term period, but it is important to note that near 12Z Friday, models do suggest a convective line just to the west of the area, so any changes in timing may shift this concern into late Thursday night (before 12Z). Will need to continue to monitor the timing as that continues to be the more uncertain aspect of this system. Overnight lows on Thursday night will drop into the mid to upper 60s, which is a bit warmer compared to recent lows. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday/warm sector environment likely the most apt to have a storm/water threat with the low pressure system that will have some degree of affect on the CWA for at least a few days. Will see a slight increase in the low level flow Friday with pockets of 850mb winds coming in from the southwest and increasing low/mid level lapse rates peaking in the western zones with the dynamic cooling aloft. Currently in a marginal risk for both severe and excessive rainfall which will probably be maximized as the cold front approaches from the west for the Friday night period. In the wake of the cold front, largely after 12Z Saturday, weather will be dictated by the upper level low and small areas of PVA rotating through the cyclonic flow aloft, a lingering surface trough over Lake Erie, and even some diurnal heating components in the cold pool now over the region. In the end, expecting high POPs needed for Saturday, decreasing Saturday night with the lack of heating. Temperatures upper 70s to mid 80s Friday, then cooler Saturday behind the cold front with lower 70s to near 80 Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Sunday begins where the short term forecast period ends with the same setup of peaking POPs Sunday and Monday during the afternoon/evening while the upper low surface trough make a slow exit from the area. High pressure finally settles into the Great Lakes after Monday, drying out the end of the long term. Temperatures roughly 75-80F through the long term, slightly below normal for the period. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... VFR across the TAF sites with VFR to persist through the TAF period. High clouds will increase from the west through Thursday with a few light showers possible across the western half of the area Thursday afternoon and evening. Not anticipating any non- VFR with the light showers. Clouds will continue to thicken to around 10kft out west by Thursday evening. Winds will become light, less than 5 knots, and favor an east to northeast direction overnight into early Thursday morning. Winds will then favor a south to southeast direction by Thursday afternoon, 4 to 7 knots. Higher northeast winds of around 8 knots will be found at CLE/ERI with a lake breeze. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in periods of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. && .MARINE... Off shore winds become easterly Thursday into Thursday night ahead of a warm front with western basin waves 1-2ft. Winds then become southerly Friday 10-20kts Friday with wave heights increasing to 2ft around 5NM away from shore. Cold front comes through Friday night with winds becoming west southwesterly Saturday, and then northwesterly Sunday. Wave heights continue to be on the increase during the Saturday to Sunday period in more onshore conditions. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Campbell NEAR TERM...Campbell SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...Kahn MARINE...26