Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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814 FXUS61 KCLE 171039 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 639 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front drifts southeastward across the area today. Behind the front, high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region by Thursday, lingering overhead through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Isolated to scattered rain showers are observed on radar, a few moving into the I-75 corridor and then more around the Greater Cleveland area. The showers in the Cleveland area have developed along the outflow boundary of a storm that died over Lake Erie. The true cold front looks to be located across lower Michigan and just on the other side of Lake Erie. Should continue to see isolated to scattered coverage of showers across the area through much of the morning. It`s possible there is an isolated thunderstorm but it`s unlikely. An uptick in coverage is expected early this afternoon, with scattered showers and storms, especially east of I-71. The cold front should cross the region by 00Z this evening with a cooler airmass advecting in. The main upper-level trough builds in with northwest flow advecting in cold air aloft, cold enough for very minor lake-induced light rain showers and mostly cloudy skies downwind of Lake Erie mainly in Northeast Ohio late tonight and during the day Thursday. The colder airmass will result in highs down into the low to mid 70s (about 6-12 degrees below normal). && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A refreshing period of mid-summer weather is in store with high pressure on the backside of an eastern Canada/New England trough in control of this portion of the forecast. Expect mainly clear/sunny skies with no rain chances and light winds. Highs will range from the mid to upper 70s in PA to the upper 70s to near 80 on Friday, warming into the low to mid 80s Saturday. Overnight lows will be on the cool side of average, especially Thursday and Friday nights when most areas away from the lake and the denser urban area near Cleveland will get into the 50s. Can`t rule out a few rural locations in northeast OH and northwest PA threatening the upper 40s, especially Friday night. Lows begin trending slightly milder Saturday night but still will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Went a bit cooler than blended model guidance for lows away from the lake and east of ~I-71 Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Troughing over eastern Canada and New England will slowly lift out this period as a modest trough digs over the central U.S., resulting in gradual moisture return. Still expecting dry weather through Sunday night. Monday will be mainly dry but clouds will likely begin increasing, with a few afternoon showers or storms not ruled out especially across our western and southern counties. By later Monday night and Tuesday more solid chance POPs (30-50%) begin returning to the forecast. While there aren`t any big systems to key on, the global models and ensembles generally suggest we`ll get into a relatively unsettled south-southwest flow with gradually increasing moisture and occasional small shortwaves moving through. This should lead to at least occasional potential for scattered showers and storms returning to the forecast by Tuesday, though the pattern doesn`t look too concerning for a severe wx or heavy rain concern at this distance. Highs will generally be in the low-mid 80s with lows in the 60s for this period with gradually increasing humidity. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Isolated to scattered rain showers are observed on radar across most of the area. Conditions are rather variable with a mixed bag of VFR and MVFR ceilings, with a couple pockets of IFR at times. These rain showers should last through much of the morning. Can`t necessarily rule out an isolated thunderstorm though it`s very unlikely. As a cold front moves south across the area, conditions improve to VFR either by improving ceilings or scattering out of clouds. Additional shower development is possible during the afternoon hours later today. There is a slightly better chance for some isolated thunderstorms to occur, however still too low of confidence to include at any TAF sites. If storms were to occur, it`s most likely at KCLE, KCAK, and/or KYNG. VFR largely expected unless there is a stronger shower/thunderstorm that can briefly reduce visibilities. Lake effect clouds and isolated light rain showers may develop downwind of Lake Erie very late Wednesday night into Thursday. This will mainly be in Northeast Ohio around KCLE but possibly into KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with ceilings possible Thursday downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. && .MARINE... A cold front is crossing the lake early this morning and will bring winds around to a north-northwesterly direction into the day today. A secondary trough axis will cross the lake from west to east this evening, shifting winds to a more northerly direction. A third and final trough looks to swing across the lake Thursday afternoon, shifting winds to a north-northeast direction. Winds will mainly be in the 5 to 15 knot range through Thursday evening, though a brief push to near or slightly greater than 15 knots is likely behind the trough passage this evening into tonight and perhaps again late Thursday afternoon. Waves will generally range from 1 to 3 feet with the modest onshore flow through Thursday evening, though if we do see a couple of periods of winds slightly greater than 15 knots we could see some brief 2-4 footers close to the southern shoreline between the Islands and Conneaut, OH. Overall we look to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria though conditions may be rough enough to make recreational boating less than pleasant and generate a moderate risk for rip currents along the Ohio shoreline east of the Islands. Generally tranquil marine conditions are expected later Thursday night through early next week with high pressure in control through the weekend and then no major systems in store early next week. In terms of convective hazards, the risk for thunderstorms over the lake is minimal for the next several days with low potential potentially returning by Monday or more likely Tuesday next week. It will become marginally unstable over the lake late tonight through Thursday morning as cooler than average air moves over the warm mid- July waters. The amount and depth of instability appears marginal for waterspouts, and while we can see them without a land breeze in these shorter fetch set-ups, the lack of a land breeze is another strike against the potential. Ultimately, refrained from a forecast or HWO mention as confidence is low given the very marginal setup. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Saunders NEAR TERM...Saunders SHORT TERM...Sullivan LONG TERM...Sullivan AVIATION...Saunders MARINE...Sullivan